Key Takeaways
- SpaceX stock is down 9% in the past month and back at its $135 IPO price, falling with AI names like CoreWeave and Meta Platforms despite 161% third-quarter revenue growth.
- Its AI business brought in 52% of third-quarter revenue and took 84% of the quarter’s capex.
- Bloomberg identified Anthropic as the customer behind 34.5% of third-quarter revenue.
- Starlink’s profits give SpaceX a funding edge over pure AI names, making it worth buying in stages.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock is down 9% in the past month, right after a quarter in which revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion. At Friday’s close of $134.70, it’s back at its $135 June IPO price.
The catch? Investors now price it as an AI stock. It has fallen alongside CoreWeave (CRWV), down 37% over the month, and Meta Platforms (META), down 15% after its third-quarter capex outran the cash its operations brought in.
AI Is Half the Business Now
SpaceX’s Super Intelligence segment brought in $7.6 billion of that revenue, nearly triple the second quarter’s $2.6 billion. It also took $16.4 billion of the quarter’s $19.6 billion of capex. SpaceX expects $35 billion to $40 billion of capex this quarter, mostly for that AI build.
Analysts expect revenue to keep climbing for years:
They’ve raised their 2027 estimate 146% since the end of June. With AI revenue growing that fast, I don’t see a reason to cut it.
Starlink Lets SpaceX Borrow Cheaply
Lenders see the difference. CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yielded 15% by Oct. 20, up from 13% at the start of the month. Semafor reported indicative rates of 7.75% to 8.3% on parts of SpaceX’s $40 billion chip financing, about half that yield. SpaceX’s Oct. 26 filing says the rate will be set at pricing and the lease should close before year-end.
Starlink is a big part of why. Musk pointed to SpaceX’s investment-grade rating and its Starlink and launch revenue, and the Connectivity segment earned $2.4 billion of the third quarter’s $2.8 billion of operating income. If CoreWeave’s borrowing costs keep rising, can it keep building at this pace?
Meta spent $34.9 billion on capex in its third quarter, more than the $32.8 billion of cash its operations brought in, and expects $135 billion to $145 billion for 2026. But revenue rose 26% to $64.6 billion, so, like SpaceX, it has a profitable core paying for the AI bet.
One Customer Is a Third of Revenue
SpaceX’s 10-Q shows that one unnamed customer, “Customer B,” made up 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, tied to the AI segment. Bloomberg identified that customer as Anthropic. Anthropic’s Oct. 26 IPO filing says it agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX through 2029, but either side can cancel on 90 days’ written notice once initial noncancelable periods end in January and March 2027.
TIKR Tracks 39 Analysts on SpaceX. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SpaceX, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SpaceX’s Analyst Ratings
Load Up on SpaceX, but in Pieces
Analysts went the other way. Their average target jumped from about $224 to $257.11 in late October, after the third-quarter report, and now sits 91% above Friday’s close.
The way I see it, SpaceX is worth buying in stages: Starlink funds the AI build, but the stock will likely keep trading with AI names.
Fourth-quarter results in early 2027 will show whether capex landed inside that guide and how far SpaceX dug into its $89.9 billion of cash and securities.
So What Is SpaceX Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
