Key Stats for SoFi Technologies Stock
- 52-Week Range: $14 to $33
- Current Price: $17
- Street Mean Target: $21
- Street High Target: $31
- Analyst Consensus: 5 Buy / 3 Outperform / 12 Hold / 2 Underperform / 2 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $40
SoFi Technologies Doubled Its Profit in Q1, Set Seven Records, and Watched the Stock Drop Anyway
SoFi Technologies (SOFI), the digital financial services platform targeting legacy bank customers with mobile-first lending, investing, and deposit products, reported Q1 2026 adjusted net revenue of $1.087 billion, up 41% year over year, in the company’s strongest quarter ever.
Net income surged to $166.7 million, up 134% from a year ago, and earnings per share doubled to $0.12 from $0.06.
This was the 18th consecutive quarter the company met or exceeded the Rule of 40.
Adjusted EBITDA climbed 62% year over year to $339.9 million at a 31% margin, with an incremental EBITDA margin of 41% signaling that each additional dollar of revenue is flowing to the bottom line at an accelerating rate.
Total loan originations reached a record $12.2 billion, the best single quarter in the company’s history, driven by record volume across all three categories: $8.3 billion in personal loans, $2.6 billion in student loans up 2.2x year over year, and $1.2 billion in home loans up 2.4x year over year.
Membership grew 35% to 14.7 million, with a record 1.1 million new members added in the quarter, and total products climbed 39% to 22.2 million.
“The health of our consumer base remains strong,” CEO Anthony Noto said on the Q1 2026 earnings call. “We saw record loan growth in the first quarter with strong demand expected for the second quarter.”
The market reacted by sending SoFi Technologies stock down roughly 12% because management held its 2026 full-year guidance unchanged at approximately $4.66 billion in adjusted net revenue and approximately $0.60 in adjusted EPS.
No rate cuts are now expected in 2026, a shift from the two cuts management assumed at the start of the year, which is the stated reason for not flowing the Q1 beat into the full-year number.
Noto bought approximately 31,000 shares in two open-market purchases in early May at prices near $16, adding to a stake of nearly 12 million shares directly held.
Why Analysts Are Split on SOFI Stock Despite the Record Results
SoFi Technologies stock sits 37% below its 52-week high of around $33, which means the stock is pricing in either a deterioration the results do not support or a discount rate that ignores the structural shift underway.
The analyst community is split almost exactly down the middle on what that gap means, with 8 buys and outperforms set against 14 holds, underperforms, and sells.
The bull side is anchored to the EBITDA trajectory: consensus projects EBITDA growing from $340 million in Q1 2026 to around $330 million in Q2, then stepping up sharply to around $440 million in Q3 and approximately $480 million in Q4, implying a full-year EBITDA well above the run rate the market appears to be pricing.
EBITDA margins are expected to expand from 31% in Q1 toward roughly 37% in the second half, driven by operating leverage on a revenue base that management has guided to grow approximately 30% in Q2 year over year.
Net income margins are projected to expand from roughly 15% in Q1 toward approximately 20% by Q4, with normalized EPS expected to hit approximately $0.17 per quarter in the back half, up from $0.12 in Q1.
The bear side points to a technology platform segment that delivered only $75 million in revenue in Q1 following the loss of a large customer, against a full-year target of approximately $325 million that requires a sharp acceleration in the back half.
The William Blair analyst who covers SOFI captured the tension directly on the earnings call, noting that management “uncharacteristically did not flow through first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside” while also stating that they see “limited downside.”
Street mean target sits at around $21, implying roughly 27% upside from the current price of approximately $17, with the high target at $31 representing the outer bound of analyst conviction.
With a mean target 27% above the current price and a business generating over $1 billion in quarterly cash revenue, including $690 million in net interest income and $390 million from fee-based sources, SoFi Technologies stock is undervalued relative to the forward EBITDA the consensus already expects.
Is SoFi Technologies Stock Undervalued? The TIKR Model Points to $40
TIKR’s base case values SoFi Technologies at approximately $40 by December 2030, implying roughly 141% total return from the current price of around $17, or approximately 21% annualized over 4.6 years.
If revenue compounds at around 17% annually through 2030 and net income margins expand toward approximately 19%, reaching the TIKR mid-case scenario, SoFi Technologies stock reaches approximately $40 with an IRR near 17%.
If revenue growth comes in lighter, around 15% annually, and margins settle near 18%, the low-case scenario produces a stock price near $45 by 2035 with an IRR of approximately 12%.
If new revenue streams including SoFiUSD, big business banking, and SoFi Plus reach meaningful scale and margins approach 20%, the high case delivers approximately $85 with an IRR near 21%.
The critical condition across all three scenarios is the same: whether the non-lending businesses, which represented roughly half of trailing net revenue, continue to grow at the 40%-plus rate they delivered in Q1.
Is SoFi Technologies Stock a Buy Right Now?
SoFi Technologies stock sits approximately 37% below its 52-week high despite posting its strongest quarter ever, with Q1 EBITDA up 62% year over year to $340 million and net income up 134% to $166.7 million.
TIKR’s base case puts fair value near $40 by December 2030, implying roughly 141% total return. The key variable is whether the H2 EBITDA margin step-up to approximately 37% arrives on schedule as management has guided.
What Do Analysts Say About SOFI Stock?
The street is evenly split: 8 analysts rate SOFI a buy or outperform while 14 rate it hold or worse.
The mean price target sits at approximately $21, implying around 27% upside from current levels, while the high target reaches $31.
Bulls point to the 62% EBITDA growth and record loan originations; bears are watching the tech platform segment, which must nearly triple from Q1’s $75 million run rate to meet full-year guidance of approximately $325 million.
Should You Invest in SoFi Technologies, Inc.?
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