Key Takeaways
- SoFi stock rose 15% in the past week while the Nasdaq 100 fell 4%, after SoFi guided to $0.90 of EPS for 2027, above the $0.82 analysts expected.
- SoFi raised its outlook through a rate hike it didn’t plan for, so its mid-October low looks like the bottom.
- Lending is now 59% of SoFi’s third-quarter revenue, so more rate hikes are the main risk, with the Fed’s Dec. 9 decision coming before fourth-quarter results in late January.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) stock is up 15% in the past week through the Nov. 2 close. Over the same stretch, the Nasdaq 100 fell 4% and slipped into a correction. The jump came on Oct. 27, when SoFi reported third-quarter results before the open, and the stock has held it through the tech selloff since.
Shares touched a 52-week low in mid-October and are still 37% below where 2026 began, so a lot was riding on the report.
A raised guide, with rates moving against it
Adjusted net revenue rose 44% to a record $1.37 billion, and members rose 35% to 17.1 million. That let SoFi lift its 2026 guidance to $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue and $0.61 of EPS.
Rates did not help. As CEO Anthony Noto put it on X after the report, “Our original 2026 guidance assumed two rate cuts.” Instead, the Fed raised rates in September, and Noto said SoFi is positioned for two more hikes this year. The Fed then held on Oct. 28, which leaves one meeting in 2026, on Dec. 9.
The 2027 guide is ahead of the Street
SoFi also guided to roughly $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue and $0.90 of EPS for 2027. Going in, analysts expected $6.14 billion and $0.82.
Estimates have since moved toward SoFi’s number. Consensus normalized EPS now climbs from $0.37 in 2025 to $0.89 in 2027:
Profitability is set to keep rising too. The 2027 outlook calls for $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA, about a 35% margin, after a record 34% in the third quarter.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on SoFi. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SoFi, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SoFi’s Analyst Ratings
Cheaper than its own history, with rate risk on the books
At the Nov. 2 close, SoFi traded at 2.2x tangible book value. That’s below its 2.7x five-year average and about a third of the 6.4x peak it reached a year earlier:
TIKR’s $21 consensus target sits 25% above that close.
The risk is rates. Lending made up 59% of third-quarter adjusted net revenue, and SoFi carries those loans at fair value. Its annual report says a 1-point rise in rates would have cut $766 million from the value of its rate-sensitive assets at the end of 2025. Credit is holding up for now: the personal-loan charge-off rate fell to 2.26% in the third quarter from 2.62% in the second.
Mid-October still looks like the bottom. A lender that can raise its outlook into rate hikes has little reason to trade below its own history. If SoFi gets close to $0.90 next year, the multiple has room to recover.
More hikes would still land on a growing loan book. The Fed’s Dec. 9 decision is the next test for those loan values, and fourth-quarter results, expected in late January, will show how they held up.
So what is SoFi stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
