Key Takeaways
- SoFi reports third-quarter results before the open on Oct. 27, a week after Jim Cramer said its 45% drop won’t reverse until bank stocks go up.
- Analysts’ EPS estimates have held through the selloff, while SoFi’s price to tangible book has fallen to 2.0x against a 3.0x three-year average.
- The report needs to back management’s guide of about $0.60 in adjusted EPS for 2026, which takes about $0.18 a quarter in the second half against $0.12 in each of the first two.
- Rising rates are the main risk, because they cut the value of the personal loans SoFi holds on its own books.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) reports its third-quarter results before the open on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Jim Cramer isn’t expecting much from the stock until the banks turn.
On the Oct. 19 episode of Mad Money, a caller asked whether to buy more SoFi after its slide. Cramer’s answer?
“It’s down 45%. It’s not going to go up until we see the other bank stocks go up because that’s what it’s trading with.”
His reasoning is that “it is a bank and it sells for much more than almost all the other bank stocks.” So when the group gets pushed down, SoFi does too.
That’s a call on sentiment. Tuesday’s report is SoFi’s chance to show that its earnings stand on their own.
Analysts haven’t cut their numbers
For all the selling, Wall Street’s estimates still have SoFi’s normalized EPS climbing from $0.37 in 2025 to $0.59 in 2026, $0.82 in 2027 and $1.08 in 2028 (as of Oct. 23).
Those numbers have barely moved. The 2026 estimate was $0.59 at the end of June too, and 2027’s has edged up from $0.81. Both are higher than they were in September 2025, by 13% and 12%.
The 2026 figure also lines up with management’s guide of about $0.60 in adjusted EPS.
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The premium has already shrunk
So the selloff has come from the multiple. For a bank holding company like SoFi, the multiple that matters is price to tangible book. It was 2.0x on Oct. 23, against a 3.0x average over the past three years and a 6.4x peak on Oct. 27, 2025.
(It’s still above its 1.6x low of August 2024, so this isn’t the cheapest SoFi has been.)
What Tuesday has to show
First, the earnings guide. The first half delivered $0.24 in adjusted EPS. That leaves about $0.36 for the second half, or roughly $0.18 a quarter, after $0.12 in each of the first two. Analysts expect about $0.17 for the third quarter.
If the quarter comes in near that and the guide stays in place, the estimates above hold, and the stock is cheaper on its own numbers. A quarter closer to $0.12, or a lower guide, would give the market a reason of SoFi’s own to sell.
Second, the loan marks. SoFi kept $7.6 billion of its $10.7 billion in second-quarter personal loans on its own books, carried at fair value, so rate moves flow straight into earnings. The personal-loan mark slipped from 105.7% at the end of 2025 to 104.7% on June 30 as benchmark rates rose. If the mark holds near that level, the loan book is holding up. Another drop would mean rates are still eating into earnings.
Cramer has a point on rates
That rate exposure is why the bank comparison holds some water. Management’s 2026 plan went from assuming two rate cuts in January to one or two hikes by July, and all the while SoFi kept adding loans that lose value when rates rise.
Credit is moving the right way, at least: the personal-loan charge-off rate fell to 2.62% in the second quarter from 3.03% in the first. But a good quarter doesn’t guarantee a rally. Shares fell more than 13% after the April report and 9% in early trading after July’s, even though SoFi beat its own second-quarter revenue guide by 8%.
My take: going by analysts’ numbers, SoFi’s business is holding up, and the stock’s fall is about what investors will pay for it. If Tuesday keeps the $0.60 guide in place and the loan mark near 104.7%, SoFi has a case to trade on its own earnings, whether or not the banks rally.
Of course, the Federal Reserve decides on rates the next day, Oct. 28, and a hike would test those loan marks all over again.
So what is SoFi stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
