Key Stats for Shopify Stock
- 52-Week Range: $94 to $182
- Current Price: $110
- Street Mean Target: $150
- Street High Target: $200
- Analyst Consensus: 28 Buy, 10 Outperform, 12 Hold, 1 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $278
Shopify Posts Its Fourth Straight Quarter of 30%-Plus Growth, Stock Sells Off Anyway
Shopify (SHOP), the Canadian e-commerce infrastructure company that powers over a million merchants globally, reported Q1 2026 revenue of $3.17 billion, up 34% year-over-year, alongside gross merchandise volume of $101 billion, a 35% increase that marked the second consecutive quarter above the $100 billion threshold.
Free cash flow came in at $476 million, holding the margin at 15%.
That is the fourth consecutive quarter of 30%-plus revenue and GMV growth paired with mid-to-high-teens free cash flow margins — a combination CFO Jeff Hoffmeister described as belonging to “a very small club” among publicly traded companies at this scale.
The stock fell 15.6% on the day of earnings anyway.
AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores grew eightfold year-over-year in Q1, while orders from AI-powered searches increased nearly thirteenfold — a signal that Shopify’s catalog integration with ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and Google is generating real transaction volume, not just headline mentions.
“AI is making entrepreneurship dramatically more accessible. That means there are about to be a lot more entrepreneurs and that means more people that need the Shopify platform,” said President Harley Finkelstein on the Q1 earnings call.
The selloff was driven by guidance, not results: Shopify forecast Q2 revenue growth in the high-twenties percentage range versus analyst expectations for around 27%, an effectively in-line print that the market treated as a miss.
Operating expenses ran at 37% of revenue in Q1, down four percentage points from Q1 2025, confirming that revenue growth is outpacing cost growth even as the company accelerates AI infrastructure investment.
Then, on June 2, Shopify announced a $3 billion expansion of its share repurchase program, bringing total authorization to $5 billion, with repurchases set to begin June 8.
About $1.45 billion had already been spent under the prior authorization as of June 1.
What Wall Street Sees in SHOP After the Selloff
Shopify stock carries 28 Buy ratings, 10 Outperform ratings, 12 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell from the 51 analysts covering it, a consensus that leans strongly constructive even after post-earnings target cuts.
The Street mean target sits at around $150, roughly 37% above the current price of $110, with the high target at $200 — implying around 82% upside for the most bullish analysts in the group.
Q2 consensus estimates project revenue of around $3.44 billion, representing around 28% growth year-over-year, followed by around $3.59 billion in Q3, representing around 26% growth.
Free cash flow is expected to expand through the back half of the year, with consensus seeing around $0.64 billion in Q4 and a full-year FCF margin profile that stays in the mid-to-high teens.
The analyst who framed the post-earnings reaction most precisely was D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria: “Shopify reported another very strong quarter… Investors’ only hesitation is the operating expense guidance being slightly higher than expected.”
That is the thesis gap Shopify stock is sitting in right now: the results are genuinely strong, the consensus conviction is high, and the 37% discount to mean target reflects a market treating temporary SaaS sector anxiety as a permanent structural discount.
Is Shopify Stock Undervalued in 2026? The TIKR Model Says Yes
TIKR’s base case values Shopify at approximately $278 by December 2030, implying around 154% total return from the current price of around $110, or roughly 20% annualized over the next 4.6 years.
If revenue compounds at around 20% annually through 2030 with net income margins expanding toward around 17%, the mid-case lands at approximately $527 by December 2034, implying around a 381% total return, or roughly 20% annualized.
If growth decelerates toward around 18% and margins settle near around 16%, the low case produces approximately $366, around 234% total return, with an IRR of roughly 15%. If Shopify’s agentic commerce position drives revenue growth closer to around 22% with margins reaching around 18%, the high case reaches approximately $736, implying around a 572% total return and an IRR near 25%.
The central variable across all three scenarios is whether the market’s current AI-disruption discount persists or reverses.
Every scenario in the TIKR model assumes the multiple compresses modestly from current levels (a P/E CAGR of around negative 5% to negative 7% across cases). Even with that drag, the business growth in all three scenarios produces significant returns from here.
Is Shopify stock a buy right now?
The analyst consensus skews constructively: 28 Buys, 10 Outperforms, and a mean target around $150 imply roughly 37% upside from the current price near $110.
The TIKR mid-case model puts the fair value at approximately $278 by December 2030, representing around 154% total return.
The stock is down over 27% year-to-date despite four consecutive quarters of 30%-plus revenue growth, which creates a potential entry point for investors with a multi-year horizon.
What do analysts say about SHOP stock?
Thirty-eight of 51 analysts rate Shopify stock Buy or Outperform, with a mean price target near $150 and a high target of $200.
Post-earnings, the primary pushback was operating expense guidance coming in slightly above expectations, not any concern about revenue trajectory. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria noted the quarter was “very strong” and that investor hesitation centered solely on the opex line.
Should You Invest in Shopify Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Shopify Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Shopify Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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