Key Stats for Shopify Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -7%
- 52-Week Range: $70 to $182
- Current Price: $117
What Happened?
Shopify‘s brutal 35% collapse from its 52-week high of $182.19 to $117.28 exposes a market paradox where the company delivered its strongest-ever quarter, with Q4 revenue surging 31% to $3.7 billion and GMV crossing $100 billion for the first time, yet software sector fear continues hammering the stock lower.
Ahead of earnings, MoffettNathanson lit the first bullish signal on February 10 by upgrading Shopify to Buy from Neutral, sending shares up 6.2% before the broader software selloff overwhelmed that conviction entirely.
Shopify’s Q4 engine fired on every cylinder, with GMV hitting $123.8 billion, Shop Pay processing $43 billion in a single quarter while capturing over 50% of U.S. payment volume, B2B GMV exploding 84%, and Q1 guidance calling for low-thirties revenue growth that demolished Wall Street’s 25.2% consensus estimate.
The market is now wrestling with a genuine re-rating tension, as Shopify’s Universal Commerce Protocol co-developed with Google, its Agentic Storefronts connecting merchants to ChatGPT and Gemini, and its 15x surge in AI-driven orders since January are repositioning the company from an e-commerce platform into the foundational infrastructure layer of AI commerce.
Meanwhile, President Harley Finkelstein stated on the Q4 earnings call that “the AI era has now reached commerce, and you’re seeing the start of this new normal,” framing Shopify’s UCP standard and agentic integrations as the defining commercial architecture of the next decade.
ID.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria defended the results after the post-earnings selloff, describing Shopify as “massive share gainers in online retail” and attributing the stock’s 7% drop on February 11 entirely to indiscriminate software sector selling unrelated to Shopify’s fundamentals.
Over the next three to five years, Shopify’s pole position in agentic commerce, controlling the back-end infrastructure across ChatGPT, Google AI Mode, and Microsoft Copilot while holding over 14% of U.S. e-commerce, sets the stage for the company to become the unavoidable commerce operating system of the AI era.
Wall Street’s Take on SHOP Stock
Despite the post-earnings software selloff dragging shares down to $117.28, Shopify’s record-breaking Q4 and its emerging role as the infrastructure backbone of AI commerce set a fundamentally stronger forward trajectory than the current price suggests.
Analysts project revenue accelerating to $14.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, representing 26.8% growth, while normalized EPS climbs 27.7% to $1.83, giving the fundamental bull case concrete numerical footing beyond the AI narrative.
Wall Street stands firmly behind the recovery thesis, with 30 analysts currently rating SHOP stock a Buy, pushing the mean price target to $161.6 against a current price of $117.28, implying 38.2% upside from current levels.
The target spread remains wide, however, with the Street’s low sitting at $110.0 and its high reaching $200.0, reflecting genuine disagreement over how quickly Shopify’s agentic commerce infrastructure translates into accelerated monetization.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
In addition, reinforcing the bull case, TIKR’s mid-case valuation model prices SHOP stock at $347.5 by the end of the decade, driven by a 21.6% revenue CAGR and 18.4% net income margins, implying a potential 196.3% total return at a 25.1% annualized IRR from the current beaten-down price.
The central risk is multiple compression, as the model projects a 7.7% annual P/E contraction even in the mid-case scenario, meaning Shopify stock must sustain exceptional earnings growth just to offset the valuation headwind that a maturing growth profile inevitably invites.
At $117.28, Shopify stock trades at a significant discount to both Wall Street’s consensus and long-term model value, making it appear meaningfully undervalued for investors willing to hold through near-term software sector volatility.
Should You Invest in Shopify Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Shopify stock] and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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