Key Stats for JFrog Stock
- Earnings Reaction: -3.04%
- Current Price: $37.75
- Valuation Model Target: $98.02
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What Happened?
JFrog (FROG) shares edged lower following its fourth-quarter earnings release, dropping 3.04% on its reporting date to close at $37.75.
The DevSecOps company reported a robust financial performance that easily topped Wall Street expectations.
Revenue reached $145.31 million, successfully beating the consensus estimate of $138.09 million.
Additionally, Adjusted EPS came in at $0.22, moving past the $0.19 analyst expectation.
Despite the strong quarter, investors slightly sold off the stock due to a conservative revenue forecast for 2026.
Management guided for 17.5% top-line growth for the upcoming year, actively choosing to strip out volatile cloud usage spikes from their projections.
While the market focused on this cautious financial modeling, the underlying software industry is experiencing a massive structural shift.
The rapid proliferation of AI coding agents is allowing developers to write code at unprecedented speeds.
This hyper-accelerated development cycle creates a “tsunami of binaries” and software packages that must be securely stored and governed.
Simultaneously, the threat landscape is worsening with frequent cyber attacks targeting open source software registries.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for JFrog stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is JFrog Undervalued Today?
The TIKR Model indicates that the market is mispricing the company’s dominant position as the ultimate system of record for the AI era.
The model projects a target price of $98.02, representing a staggering 159.7% upside from current levels.
During the earnings call, CEO Shlomi Ben Haim explained how artificial intelligence is directly fueling demand for their platform.
Ben Haim stated verbatim: “The market is experiencing a tsunami of binaries accelerating by AI. JFrog was built from day 1 to handle exactly this asset at this scale.”
He also emphasized the critical need for governance over these machine-generated assets.
Ben Haim added verbatim: “As human developers and AI agents generate software at a massive scale, the resulting surge in binaries demands a trusted platform to manage, secure, and govern them end to end.”
Read the full JFrog Transcript on TIKR to see the cloud revenue breakdown >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model identifies JFrog as a highly scalable software compounder trading at a steep discount to its intrinsic growth trajectory.
- Target Price: $98.02
- Current Price: $37.75
- Annualized Return: 21.7%
The Cloud and Security Engine: JFrog is successfully migrating its customer base toward high value cloud deployments and advanced security bundles. Cloud revenue grew 45% for the full year, now representing nearly half of total sales. Furthermore, the company’s core security products have scaled to comprise over 10% of total Annual Recurring Revenue.
Unmatched Retention Metrics: The company operates with incredibly sticky enterprise relationships, reporting a gross retention rate of 97%. As customers consolidate their fragmented security tools into a single platform, JFrog’s net dollar retention rate continues to climb, hitting 119% over the trailing four quarters.
Conclusion: A mission critical software platform temporarily discounted by cautious guidance. With a projected 159.7% total return potential, JFrog offers patient investors a prime opportunity to capitalize on the AI software revolution. The path to $98 is secured by explosive binary creation, a 45% cloud growth rate, and a dominant position in supply chain security.
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How Much Upside Does JFrog Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
