Key Stats for Samsara Stock
- Current Price: $33.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$71
- Street Target: ~$44
- Potential Total Return: ~112%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
- Max Drawdown: 46.37% on 2/5/26
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What Happened?
Samsara Inc. (IOT) closed at $33.33 on July 22, down 7.60% in a session with no earnings release and no guidance revision from the company. Reporting on the move points to rotation out of high-multiple software alongside concerns about enterprise deal pacing, rather than any single confirmed catalyst. Samsara held its annual meeting that day, and no company announcement has been tied to the decline.
The week around it cut both ways. Samsara introduced its first brand overhaul since founding on July 21, and Morgan Stanley assumed coverage at Equal Weight the same day. Guggenheim then initiated with a Buy on July 23, the session after the drop.
What sits underneath is a valuation that leaves no room for doubt about duration. Samsara trades at 38.80x NTM EV/EBITDA and 43.72x forward P/E. The two listed software comparables TIKR carries with data, Trimble and Karooooo, trade at 10.81x and 11.39x forward EBITDA. That is a narrow comparison set, but the gap is wide enough that the stock reprices hard whenever the market briefly stops extending credit on growth.
Two Customers Put Numbers on the Record
At its June 2026 Investor Day, Samsara did something more useful than presenting retention statistics. It put two customers on stage and let them quantify the product.
Eric Amlee, Senior Vice President of Fleet at Primoris Services Corporation, described results across roughly 8,000 camera-equipped units: total events down 66%, severe speeding down 40%, and crashes down 42%. He put the financial effect at “roughly $5 million a year in savings from crashes and claims,” plus a 30% reduction in idling.
Tom Olitsky, VP of Safety at Performance Food Group, gave the more striking figure. His company budgeted for a $20 million insurance cost increase and finished the fiscal year having needed only half of it. Over three years, he cited a 26% drop in total event rates and a 90% reduction in speeding above 10 miles per hour.
Those are buyer-stated numbers, not vendor claims, and they explain the expansion pattern. CFO Dominic Phillips said roughly 60% of net new annual contract value has come from expansions rather than new logos across the last three fiscal years. Customers spending $100,000 or more now represent about 62% of ARR, up from 58% a year earlier, and 190 customers pay more than $1 million of ARR, together roughly a quarter of the total.
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The Runway Sits Inside Accounts Already Signed
Phillips framed Samsara against the wider software universe: of roughly 300 U.S.-listed software companies, about 60 carry $2 billion or more of ARR, and among those, he counted only three “still growing north of 30% and are GAAP profitable, Samsara, Palantir, and Datadog.”
The more testable claim was about unsold capacity. He put North American telematics penetration near 50% of more than 35 million commercial vehicles, spread across more than 35 vendors, with the AI dash camera market around 15% penetrated. Treat those as management’s directional framing: CEO Sanjit Biswas cited a lower 34% connected figure earlier in the same session for a slightly different geographic scope.
Inside its existing customer base, Samsara estimates it has monetized roughly 35% of commercial vehicles across its two core vehicle applications. Emerging products, approaching $150 million of ARR, contributed more than 20% of net new ACV in each of the last two quarters. The newest is a single-use Bluetooth shipment tag that VP of Products David Gal priced at a $15 list per shipment on consumption rather than subscription, which reaches shippers and manufacturers who were never fleet customers.
Where the Premium Runs Out of Room
The operating record is not the weak point. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue beat consensus by 5.20% and EBITDA by 28.57%, and LTM diluted EPS turned positive at $0.10.
The market has not ignored that. Reactions to the last five prints ran -4.55%, +17.44%, +11.08%, +19.54%, and -1.16%. There were three large positive moves. The stock is still down 12.6% over the past year and sits 26.29% below its highest close of the last twelve months, because the multiple compressed faster than earnings grew. Forward EV/EBITDA has fallen from 81.03x in August 2025 to 38.80x now.
At that level against comparables near 11x, the required belief is not that Samsara executes but that it executes for years without deceleration. Two things could break it. Deal timing is structurally lumpy because customers cannot take fleets offline and deploy in phases, which Chief Revenue Officer Amit Vyas described as the reason even committed buyers roll out slowly. And the newest growth vectors are early: Chief Product Officer Johan Land said the waste and roadway intelligence opportunities have seven-figure deals in the pipeline, which is a pipeline and not a signed contract.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $33.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$71
- Potential Total Return: ~112%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case assumes revenue compounding around 15% and net income margins near 24%, both below the company’s recent trajectory. It does not require the multiple to expand.
Two revenue drivers:
- Core penetration. Management puts about half of North American commercial vehicles on no telematics platform, and Samsara has monetized roughly 35% of vehicles within its own accounts.
- Emerging products. Above 20% of net new ACV, with consumption pricing reaching non-fleet buyers.
Margin driver: Operating leverage in sales, marketing, and G&A. Stock-based compensation is tracking toward around 18% of revenue this year from 25% in fiscal 2024, with EBITDA margins forecast near 26% by fiscal 2029.
Primary risk: Multiple compression. At 38.80x forward EBITDA against comparables near 11x, a derating toward them erases the return even if the operating forecast lands.
Upside: Around 16% revenue growth with margins near 26% supports a materially higher path.
Downside: Around 13% growth with margins near 23% still clears a high-single-digit annual return, with no cushion for a further reset.
Conclusion
The next fiscal Q2 report is the checkpoint, and net new ARR growth is the line that matters. Phillips said it accelerated year over year in each of the last three quarters. Continued acceleration keeps Samsara inside the narrow group he described and gives the premium a foundation. Deceleration leaves 38.80x forward EBITDA sitting against comparables near 11x, with the customer ROI stories as the only thing holding it up.
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Should You Invest in Samsara?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Samsara, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
