Micron Technology (MU) stock got a bigger target from Rosenblatt on Thursday, October 1. The firm raised its price target to $1,900 from $1,500 and kept its Buy rating. The stock traded near $1,065 at the time, so the new target sat about 78% higher.
Analyst Kevin Cassidy called Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter an “anticipated beat-and-raise quarter.” His case rests on two forecasts: gross margins that keep widening through fiscal 2027, and more than $100 billion of free cash flow that year, with heavy buybacks to follow. DA Davidson went further the same day and lifted its target to a Street-high $2,100.
The Cash Is Already Here
The free cash flow forecast is already showing up in the numbers. Micron generated $32.86 billion in free cash flow in the quarter ended September 3. That’s up from $17.56 billion the quarter before and $0.07 billion a year earlier.
Fiscal 2026 added up to $58.96 billion, against $1.67 billion in fiscal 2025. Rosenblatt forecasts more than $100 billion next year. Micron reported fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $62.31 billion, versus $58.96 billion calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.
The Buybacks Haven’t Scaled
The buyback forecast is still just a forecast. Micron spent $650 million under its share-repurchase program in fiscal 2026, about 1.1% of its $58.96 billion in free cash flow. Separately, it spent $1.13 billion withholding shares for taxes on employee equity awards.
Management intends to increase capital returns beginning December 9, 2026, primarily through repurchases, and expects to return all excess cash over time. It gave no fiscal 2027 dollar target, leaving the scale and pace of buybacks uncertain.
The Peak-Cycle Problem for Micron Stock
Memory stocks have a habit of looking cheapest right at the top of the cycle. Micron trades at 5.94x next-12-month earnings, well below its 10.43x average on the chart.
That low multiple says the market doubts these earnings will last. Rosenblatt answers with visibility. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said “more than 75% of our output is already committed,” so Micron has contracted demand to lean on, not just spot pricing.
What Would Move Micron Stock
I think Rosenblatt has the cash flow right and the buybacks early. The stock re-rates only when Micron shows it can hold margins as new supply comes online. A formal repurchase target would be the clearest signal that it plans to return that cash. Sandisk (SNDK) sells into the same tight memory market on the NAND side and faces the same test.
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