Key Stats for ROKU Stock
- 52-Week Range: $74 to $133
- Current Price: $122
- Street Mean Target: $146
- Street High Target: $170
- Analyst Consensus: 20 Buy, 5 Outperform, 3 Hold, 1 Underperform
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $305
Roku’s Platform Revenue Surged 28% in Q1, but the Market Still Treats It Like a Hardware Company
Roku (ROKU) posted platform revenue of $1.13 billion in Q1 2026, a 28% year-over-year increase, while advertising gross margins topped 60% for the first time on record — yet Roku stock trades roughly 8% below its 52-week high, in a range that implies the market has not fully adjusted to what the business has become.
The company is no longer a streaming device maker with an ad business attached.
Platform revenue now represents the overwhelming bulk of total revenue, and that platform is generating advertising growth of 27% alongside subscription growth of 30%.
Total Q1 revenue came in at $1.25 billion, beating the analyst consensus of around $1.20 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA jumped 165% year over year to $148 million, with free cash flow of $200 million in the quarter — the second-highest FCF quarter in company history.
CEO Anthony Wood described the trajectory directly at the Q1 2026 earnings call: “We delivered an outstanding quarter and are executing against our monetization initiatives.”
Following the Q1 beat, Roku raised its full-year 2026 platform revenue guidance to approximately $5 billion, representing around 21% growth, up from a prior projection of around 18%.
Full-year net revenue guidance came in at approximately $5.5 billion.
The company also surpassed 100 million streaming households worldwide during the quarter, a milestone CFO Dan Jedda had been publicly targeting for months and one that underpins the monetization argument directly.
Two new partnership moves arrived in May and June that are not yet reflected in any quarterly results.
Roku added FOX One as a premium subscription on The Roku Channel, giving subscribers live, on-demand access to FOX programming including all 104 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, priced at $19.99 per month.
The company also launched NHL Zone, a dedicated hockey hub within Roku Sports, ahead of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final.
Both deals extend the platform’s reach into live sports at a moment when advertisers are aggressively following live audiences into connected TV.
A new personalized home screen is roughly 20% rolled out across the installed base, collapsing the left navigation bar and surfacing the video ad unit as an auto-playing impression from the moment a viewer opens the interface.
Wall Street Sees Roku Stock as a Strong Buy, Backed by Platform Margin Data
Twenty of 29 covering analysts rate Roku stock a Buy, with 5 Outperforms, 3 Holds, and 1 Underperform as of the June 5, 2026 data from TIKR.
The Street mean target sits at around $146, implying roughly 19% upside from the current price, while the high target of $170 reflects analyst conviction that the home screen monetization upgrade and DSP integrations can push platform revenue above current estimates.
The metric that shifted analyst conviction most sharply after Q1 was advertising gross margin.
Advertising gross margins came in at just over 60% for Q1, up more than 400 basis points year over year, directly contradicting the prior consensus that integrating third-party demand-side platforms would compress Roku’s take. Jedda had been pushing back on that narrative for over a year; the Q1 segment disclosure, in which Roku broke out subscription and advertising margins separately for the first time, settled the question.
Consensus EBITDA estimates for Q2 2026 sit at around $170 million, roughly 118% above the Q2 2025 level, with full-year 2026 EBITDA consensus at approximately $675 million — a figure the company itself has guided to, representing more than 330 basis points of margin expansion year over year.
Meanwhile, Roku’s free cash flow came in at $200 million in Q1, up roughly 43% year over year, and the Q2 consensus estimate sits at around $200 million again, putting full-year FCF on track to exceed the $675 million EBITDA guidance, a function of Roku’s capital-light model and its approximately $1.2 billion net operating loss carryforward, which offsets cash taxes and widens the gap between reported EBITDA and actual cash generation.
The primary risk Wall Street flags is H2 macro exposure: Q2 guidance reflects stronger near-term visibility, while the back half remains subject to advertising demand conditions and the timing of political spend, which Jedda indicated should be comparable to the 2024 general election cycle.
The secondary risk is the device segment, where Q1 revenue fell 16% year over year and margins were negative, driven by rising memory costs. Management has also been explicit that total device investment in dollars has not changed — the mix is shifting toward third-party OEM units that do not appear in device revenue but still produce platform monetization.
Roku’s Gross Margins Hit a Two-Year High as Operating Income Turns Positive
Roku stock’s revenue grew 22.4% year over year in Q1 2026 to $1.25 billion, the fastest growth rate in the eight-quarter window.
Gross profit of $565 million produced a gross margin of 45.2%, the highest reading across that same eight-quarter span and up from 43.6% in the year-ago quarter.
Operating expenses held nearly flat sequentially at $510 million in Q1 2026, while gross profit expanded, which is how operating income reached $50 million and operating margins reached 4.1% — compared to a loss in every quarter through Q2 2025.
That operating leverage inflection is the income statement story: revenue is now growing faster than the cost structure, and the gap is widening.
Is Roku Stock Undervalued? TIKR’s $305 Target Points to Around 149% Total Return
TIKR’s base case values Roku at approximately $305 by December 2030, implying around 149% total return from the current price of $122, or roughly 22% annualized over approximately 4 and a half years.
The base case rests on a revenue CAGR of around 10%, net income margins expanding to around 10%, and EPS growing at roughly 30% annualized. Under those assumptions, Roku stock reaches approximately $305 by end of 2030 at an IRR of around 13%.
If revenue growth accelerates to around 11% CAGR and net income margins reach approximately 11%, the TIKR high case produces a stock price of approximately $461 by December 2030, implying around 277% total return and an IRR of roughly 17%.
The low case, at around 9% revenue CAGR and net margins near 10%, produces a stock price of approximately $269, still implying around 120% total return and an IRR of roughly 10%.
In every scenario the TIKR model presents, Roku stock is undervalued at its current price.
The structural argument behind all three cases is the same: the monetization layer built on top of 100 million streaming households (DSP integrations, premium subscriptions, a redesigned home screen with new ad units still in development, and Ads Manager opening the SMB market) is, by Jedda’s own description at the Evercore conference in June, still in very early innings — and the current price has not yet caught up to that earnings trajectory.
Is Roku Stock Undervalued in 2026?
Based on TIKR’s base case model, Roku stock is undervalued at around $122. The model targets approximately $305 by December 2030, implying around 149% total return.
Advertising gross margins of over 60% and full-year EBITDA guidance of approximately $675 million for 2026 support the case that platform monetization is running ahead of where the stock is priced.
What Do Analysts Say About ROKU Stock?
Wall Street is broadly bullish on Roku stock. Of 29 covering analysts in the TIKR data as of June 5, 2026, 20 rate it Buy and 5 rate it Outperform, against 3 Holds and 1 Underperform.
The Street mean target is around $146, with a high target of $170. That high target reflects analyst conviction that the home screen monetization upgrade and DSP integrations could push platform revenue growth above current consensus estimates.
Should You Invest in Roku, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Roku, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Roku, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze ROKU stock on TIKR for Free →
