Key Stats for Rocket Lab Corporation
- 52-Week Range: $37.57 – $151.00
- Current Price: $65.74
- Street Mean Target: $114.33
- Market Cap: $39.3 billion
- NTM EV/Revenues: 38.80x
- LTM Gross Margin: 36.6%
- Dividend Yield: None
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is the only commercial launch company outside of SpaceX regularly putting payloads into orbit.
The company operates two business lines: Launch Services, which flies its workhorse Electron rocket on missions for government and commercial customers, and Space Systems, which designs and manufactures satellites and spacecraft components.
Space Systems now accounts for the majority of revenue and is growing in defense and national security contracts. Earlier this year, the stock touched $151 on enthusiasm around the Neutron medium-lift rocket program and a string of contract wins.
As of yesterday, it sits 56% below that peak, at its worst drawdown level on record, even as the underlying business keeps setting new highs across revenue, backlog, and profitability metrics.
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A 56% Drawdown at the Exact Moment the Business Is Performing Best
The drawdowns chart is striking in both direction and timing. Rocket Lab spent most of 2025 moving in sharp cycles, with pullbacks of 30–40% followed by full recoveries. Each time, the business was the anchor that pulled the stock back. Starting in June 2026, something changed.
The stock dropped without a meaningful bounce, hitting a max drawdown of 56.24% yesterday, the worst reading in the chart’s history and still falling as of the close.
Nothing in Q1 2026 results explains the decline. Revenue came in at $147.6 million, up 32% year over year and a quarterly record. The backlog crossed $1 billion for the first time.
Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $13.7 million, a milestone the company had been working toward for years. Gross margin held at 37.2%. CEO Peter Beck raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $850–$900 million and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $90–$110 million.
The selloff looks like a rotation out of high-multiple space and defense names following a broader derating of speculative growth stocks, rather than any specific bad news about Rocket Lab itself.
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Revenue Growing From $62 Million to Nearly $1 Billion in Five Years
The revenue chart puts the growth trajectory in perspective. Rocket Lab generated just $62 million in 2021. By 2025, that figure had reached $602 million.
Consensus estimates see the company crossing $900 million this year and approaching $1.3 billion by 2027, with continued scaling toward $2.5 billion by 2030.
The implied forward revenue CAGR is around 46% over the next two years, which ranks among the highest of any company this size in the market today.
The growth is coming from two directions at once. Launch Services benefits from a backlog of contracted Electron missions and the eventual addition of Neutron, a larger rocket designed to compete for heavier payloads currently dominated by SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
Space Systems, meanwhile, is expanding into satellite manufacturing and defense contracts that carry longer revenue visibility.
The combination of a recurring launch cadence and growing systems revenue is what gives the backlog figure meaning. A $1 billion backlog on $600 million in trailing revenue represents real contracted visibility, not just pipeline optimism.
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What Analysts Think the Stock Is Worth
With negative earnings and a near-zero EBITDA base relative to the market cap, traditional valuation models produce distorted outputs for Rocket Lab. Street price targets are a more grounded reference point here.
The mean analyst target sits at around $114, implying roughly 74% upside from the current price. The median target is $120. Of the 15 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it a buy, 3 rate it an outperform, and 4 rate it a hold, with just one underperform.
The target range runs from $77 on the low end to $150 on the high. Worth noting is how the target-to-price ratio has evolved: a year ago, analysts were roughly at parity with where the stock was trading.
Today, targets are nearly 74% above the current price, reflecting a stock that has fallen faster than analysts have been willing to cut their estimates. Whether that gap closes from the stock recovering or targets coming down is the central question.
Should You Buy Rocket Lab Stock?
Rocket Lab is one of the more genuinely difficult stocks to assess right now. The business case is real: it has a defensible position in commercial launch, a growing defense revenue stream, and a Neutron program that could meaningfully expand its addressable market.
The financial progress is real too, with EBITDA now positive and revenue growing at nearly 50% annually. The complication is valuation. At nearly $40 billion in market cap on roughly $600 million in trailing revenue, the stock prices in years of continued execution at a high level.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
