Key Stats for CAVA Group
- 52-Week Range: $43.41 – $98.79
- Current Price: $65.60
- Street Mean Target: $93.04
- Market Cap: $8.0 billion
- NTM P/E: 112.72x
- NTM EV/EBITDA: 39.58x
- Dividend Yield: None
CAVA Group (CAVA) is a Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain built around customizable bowls and pitas, with a menu centered on ingredients like hummus, falafel, and grilled proteins.
The concept sits at the intersection of two durable consumer trends: demand for healthier food and a broader shift toward globally inspired flavors. The company went public in 2023 and became one of the more closely watched growth stories in the restaurant sector almost immediately. Over the past year, the stock has lost about 20% while the business has kept accelerating.
Revenue grew 32% in the most recent quarter, same-restaurant sales rose nearly 10%, and the company opened 20 net new locations. The gap between what the business is doing and what the stock is doing is worth understanding.
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A 30% Drawdown While the Business Keeps Winning
The drawdowns chart shows a stock that has been under pressure for most of 2026. Through the first few months of the year, CAVA moved in familiar cycles: sharp drops followed by quick recoveries, never staying down long. Starting in late April, the pattern changed.
The stock sold off persistently through May and June, hitting a max drawdown of 30.60% on July 8. Shares currently sit roughly 29% off peak.
Nothing in the operating results explains it. Q1 2026 same-restaurant sales grew 9.7%, driven by guest traffic growth of 6.8%, which matters because traffic growth is harder to manufacture than price increases.
Restaurant-level profit margin held at 25.1%. CEO Brett Schulman noted the company opened new markets across the Midwest, with entries into Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus all performing ahead of expectations.
The pullback looks like a valuation reset on a stock that ran very far, very fast, rather than any deterioration in what CAVA is actually building.
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Revenue Growth That Most Restaurant Companies Can’t Touch
The quarterly revenue chart tells the growth story clearly. CAVA has been consistently stepping up from one year to the next, with Q1 2026 coming in at $438 million against $293 million in the same quarter a year earlier.
The seasonality is worth noting: CAVA’s fiscal calendar makes Q1 a 16-week quarter versus 12 weeks for Q2 through Q4, which is why revenue appears to dip in the quarters that follow before stepping back up the following year.
Looking at Q1 to Q1 rather than sequentially, the trajectory is clean. Consensus estimates project Q1 2027 reaching around $528 million, reflecting continued new restaurant openings and steady same-store momentum.
The full-year 2026 same-restaurant sales guidance was raised after Q1 to 4.5–6.5%, up from the original 3–5% range.
At 459 restaurants today, CAVA still has enormous runway compared to where Chipotle stood at a similar stage. Chipotle operates over 3,700 locations.
Digital revenue mix of nearly 40% adds another layer: orders placed through the app or for delivery carry favorable economics and help the company build direct relationships with guests rather than relying entirely on walk-in traffic.
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What the Valuation Model Says About a Pricey Stock
TIKR’s model targets around $224 per share in the mid case over roughly four years, implying a total return of around 225% from current levels, or about 30% annualized.
The high case approaches $589 by the end of the forecast period, while even the low case implies strong returns. The scenario range is wide and skews heavily upward.
The return is driven almost entirely by EPS growth, with P/E essentially flat in the mid case. The honest caveat is that the model assumes revenue growth of around 19% annually and net income margins expanding toward 7%.
At 112x forward earnings today, there is no room for the business to stumble. Any deceleration in same-store sales or restaurant openings will reprice this stock quickly. The valuation is a bet on execution at a very high level for a sustained period.
Should You Buy CAVA Stock?
CAVA is genuinely one of the better businesses in the restaurant sector right now. The traffic growth, margin stability, and new market expansion all point to a brand with real staying power. The difficulty is the price.
At over 100x forward earnings, the stock requires nearly perfect execution to justify current levels, and the 30% drawdown suggests the market is already wrestling with whether the premium is warranted. TIKR’s model points to compelling upside if the growth holds.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
