Why CAVA Group Stock Could Be Worth Around $213 by 2030

Key Takeaways for CAVA Group Stock as of June 2026

• Analysts rate CAVA Group stock with 14 buys, 3 outperforms, 9 holds, and 1 sell, with a mean target of $92, implying around 10% upside from the current price of $83.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values CAVA Group at around $213 by December 2030, implying around 156% total return, or roughly 23% annualized over 4.5 years.
• CAVA Group stock appears to be undervalued at current levels, with Q1 2026 revenue growing 32% year-over-year to $434.4 million while the stock trades 16% below its 52-week high of $99.
• CAVA raised full-year 2026 same-restaurant sales guidance to 4.5% to 6.5% after Q1 traffic growth of 6.8% outpaced every major casual dining peer.

CAVA stock trades at $83 with a $213 TIKR target and 14 analyst buy ratings. See the full model breakdown for CAVA stock on TIKR for free →

CAVA Stock Beats Q1 Revenue Estimates by 6% and Raises Guidance as Peers Cut Prices

CAVA Group (CAVA), the Mediterranean fast-casual chain operating 459 restaurants across 29 states, grew Q1 2026 revenue 32.2% year-over-year to $434.4 million, beating analyst consensus of $411 million by roughly 6% and prompting management to raise its full-year same-restaurant sales outlook to 4.5% to 6.5%.

Same-restaurant sales rose 9.7% in Q1, driven by 6.8% traffic growth, a result the company delivered while holding price increases well below the cumulative rate of inflation since 2019.

CEO Brett Schulman, on the Q1 earnings call, explained the long-term pricing discipline: “Over the longer term, we have priced well below inflation with price adjustments representing only slightly more than half of cumulative CPI since the end of 2019.”

CAVA’s lower-income consumer cohorts outperformed the rest of the customer base in Q1, a counterintuitive result management attributed to the brand’s relative price advantage over traditional quick-service peers that have taken steeper menu price increases in recent years.

CAVA opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, bringing total locations to 459, up 20.2% year-over-year, with new restaurant productivity tracking above 100% of the system-wide average unit volume of $3 million.

CAVA launched Pomegranate-Glazed Salmon nationally at the start of Q2 2026, the brand’s first seafood protein, which management expects to create an approximately 100 basis point headwind on restaurant-level margins while pricing the item at penny-profit neutrality across the full menu.

Management also disclosed CavaCore, an internally built unified data platform now live across the organization, and CAVA Current, a real-time commerce platform actively processing live order flow in every restaurant, both designed to enable AI-driven personalization and predictive operations over the coming years.

CAVA expanded its catering market test to Houston and plans to launch in a second city later in 2026, with management targeting the resolution of load-balancing and capacity questions before any broader rollout. The company also closed Q1 with $403 million in cash and zero debt, while generating $15.5 million in free cash flow for the quarter.

UBS upgraded CAVA stock to Buy from Neutral on June 10, citing the company’s “compelling growth story” and what it called an “increasingly scarce” positive same-store sales record relative to the broader restaurant sector.

CAVA’s COO and CLO also made open-market share purchases in May and June 2026 at prices between $70 and $79, adding to existing positions alongside the Q1 results.

CAVA’s salmon launch is expected to run through Q4. See how analysts are pricing the margin impact into forward estimates for CAVA on TIKR for free →

Wall Street Adds Buy Ratings to CAVA Group Stock After Q1 Results Exceed Estimates

24 analysts cover CAVA Group stock, with 14 buys, 3 outperforms, 9 holds, and 1 sell as of June 25, 2026.

The mean price target of $92 implies around 10% upside from the current price of $83, with a high target of $110 reflecting a meaningful range in how far the most bullish analysts are willing to project the growth runway.

Consensus Expects CAVA Stock Revenue to Grow Above 20% Through Mid-2027

Revenue growth for CAVA Group stock is expected to hold above around 28% for the quarter ending June 2026, sustaining the trajectory the Q1 print confirmed rather than following the deceleration pattern visible across casual dining peers.

Estimates hold revenue growth above around 20% through the quarter ending June 2027, signaling the Street expects CAVA’s unit expansion and same-store sales momentum to compound without a meaningful deceleration across five consecutive forward quarters.

A company sustaining above-20% revenue growth across five forward quarters while the broader restaurant sector struggles with declining traffic, with CAVA Group stock trading at $83 against a Street mean of $92, is undervalued by the consensus its own estimates imply.

Whether CAVA’s national salmon rollout and expanding catering program can push same-store sales past the upper end of the 6.5% full-year guidance range will determine whether the estimate trajectory accelerates or stabilizes heading into 2027.

CAVA Stock Grows Revenue at 32% in Q1 2026 While Chipotle Manages 7%

CAVA grew revenue 32.08% in Q1 2026, outpacing Dutch Bros (BROS) at 31%, Shake Shack (SHAK) at 14%, and Chipotle (CMG) at 7% across the same quarter.

Consensus estimates project CAVA holding above 20% revenue growth through mid-2027, while Chipotle estimates peak at around 11% over the same horizon.

CAVA’s nearly 25 percentage point revenue growth lead over Chipotle in Q1 2026 signals its scale expansion phase runs at a different velocity than the category’s largest operator, even as both compete for the same fast-casual dining occasions.

TIKR Values CAVA Stock at Around $213 by 2030 on Sustained Category Leadership

TIKR’s mid-case model values CAVA Group at around $213 by December 2030, implying around 156% total return from the current price of $83, or roughly 23% annualized over 4.5 years.

At roughly 23% annualized, CAVA stock is undervalued relative to what the model’s implied total return signals for a consumer restaurant name, pricing in the kind of compounding execution that Q1 results and a raised full-year guidance range suggest the company is already delivering.

The path to $213 runs through the unit economics already on display in the data: new restaurants opening at above-100% system productivity, same-store sales growing ahead of every major peer in a difficult macro environment, and a $403 million cash balance with zero debt giving management full flexibility over the pace and geography of expansion.

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