Key Takeaways
- Roblox shares fell 14% after it guided fourth-quarter bookings down 10%-15% from a year earlier, below what analysts expected.
- Daily users fell 9% in the third quarter, and Roblox expects negative adjusted EBITDA this quarter.
- CFO Naveen Chopra said the guide builds in a “modest headwind” from Take-Two Interactive’s Grand Theft Auto VI.
- The stock looks cheap on forward sales, but there’s no rush to buy until bookings grow again.
Roblox (RBLX) beat its own bookings forecast for the third quarter, and the stock is still down 14% today.
After Thursday’s close, Roblox guided fourth-quarter bookings to $1.89 billion to $2 billion, down 10% to 15% from a year earlier and short of the $2.02 billion analysts expected. On the call, CFO Naveen Chopra said that guide does “build in a modest headwind from the release of GTA in the quarter.” That’s Grand Theft Auto VI from Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), due Nov. 19.
A beat that didn’t count
Here’s the third quarter, against a year earlier:
- Bookings fell 12% to $1.7 billion, but beat the top of guidance and the $1.62 billion analysts expected.
- Daily active users fell 9% to 138 million.
Management blames “a comparison to the extraordinary growth we experienced in 2025,” when bookings jumped 55%. But daily users fell from a year earlier for the first time this year even with Steal an Egg, this summer’s viral hit.
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Spending into the slump
Roblox expects adjusted EBITDA of negative $70 million to negative $10 million this quarter, after a positive $138 million in the third. It also expects free cash flow of negative $190 million to negative $105 million. Chopra pointed to higher AI infrastructure costs and more marketing aimed at adults. (With $6.2 billion of cash and investments, Roblox can afford the bet.)
GTA VI matters even more to Take-Two. Take-Two’s net bookings fell 3% in the June quarter. In August, it stood by its outlook for $8 billion to $8.2 billion in the year to March 2027, and it pointed to the GTA VI launch when it did. Its holiday-quarter guide, due in early November, will show whether “modest” was the right word.
Cheap, and I’d still wait
Before today’s drop, Roblox traded at 5.3x forward sales, well below its five-year average of 7.7x:
At today’s price, it’s even lower.
My take: shrinking users and negative free cash flow don’t make a bottom. I’d wait for bookings to grow again before buying.
Of course, a big share of Roblox’s fourth-quarter bookings usually comes in the last week of December, so the holidays can still swing it either way.
So what is Roblox stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
