Key Stats for Robinhood Stock
- Current Price: $103.99
- Target Price (Mid): ~$198
- Street Target: ~$134
- Potential Total Return: ~91%
- Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
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What Happened?
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) fell 8.54% on October 14, 2026, closing at $101.08. That day, hotter-than-expected core inflation raised the case for more Federal Reserve tightening, and Q3 results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley dented confidence in the sector. Robinhood also took two analyst hits. Wolfe Research downgraded it to Peer Perform from Outperform, saying its bullish drivers were reflected in the share price, according to StreetInsider, and Wells Fargo cut its target to $120 from $125. Shares rose 2.88% on October 15, and Robinhood’s investor relations materials set Q3 results for October 27, after the close.
The Multiple Fell Faster Than the Estimates
Wolfe’s call lands on a stock that had already de-rated. Robinhood’s NTM P/E on normalized earnings has fallen from about 43 times at the end of 2025 to about 35 times, an 18% drop. Over that period, the price slipped from $113.10 to $103.99, while the NTM normalized EPS estimate rose from around $2.64 to around $2.96. Truist flagged the same pattern on October 13, noting that broker stocks have traded roughly flat this year as shrinking valuations offset better 2027 estimates.
Part of that EPS gain is the forward window rolling toward 2027, where analysts expect faster growth. Fixed-year revenue estimates on TIKR are more mixed. FY2026 consensus remains about 2% below its December 31 level, though it has climbed about 5% since June 30 to around $5.3 billion, and FY2027 is up about 10% this year. The Street mean target is around $134 across 29 analysts, with 19 Buy, 6 Outperform, 4 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell.
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Tenev’s Gold Card Design, and Cboe’s SEC Green Light
Robinhood’s growth case rests on more than trading. Its Q2 2026 results counted 13 business lines at $100 million or more in annualized revenue. At the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference on September 9, Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev explained how one feeds another: the Gold Card’s 3% cash back must be redeemed into a brokerage account. “And so we’re encouraging people to build an investing habit as they’re doing their spending,” he said. He called it a challenge to show “the right product to the right person at the right time” without overwhelming customers.
On October 13, the SEC approved Cboe’s rule change for binary options tied to company KPIs. Robinhood plans to be the first retail broker to offer them, and Robinhood’s own customer count and revenue are among the metrics. Trading still awaits clearinghouse registration, and both firms are waiving fees through year-end, so any 2026 benefit would come from engagement rather than contract fees. Robinhood’s sports contracts face tighter limits: Ohio set an October 16 deadline for it to stop offering them in the state.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $103.99
- Target Price (Mid): ~$198
- Potential Total Return: ~91%
- Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case, a scenario rather than a forecast, points to around $198 by December 31, 2030. That is a total return of around 91%, or about 17% a year from $103.99, and well above the Street mean of around $134. The primary risk is a slower trading backdrop alongside state limits on sports contracts. On the downside, applying the roughly 28 times forward P/E the stock traded at on March 31, 2026, to today’s NTM EPS estimate of around $2.96 gives about $81.
Conclusion
Net deposits are the number to watch after BTIG called July and August underwhelming. Stronger deposits and Q3 revenue above the roughly $1.43 billion consensus would show the business still growing beneath a shrinking multiple. A miss would leave room for 35 times to compress further.
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So what is Robinhood stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
