Key Stats for Super Micro Stock
- Current Price: $35.09
- Target Price (Mid): ~$72
- Street Target: ~$42
- Potential Total Return: ~105%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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What Happened?
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) earned $2.23 billion of GAAP net income in fiscal 2026 (ended June 30). It still burned $6.97 billion of free cash flow on $39.06 billion of revenue.
That gap now belongs to Mark Long, Western Digital’s (WDC) CFO from 2016 to 2019. The board appointed him effective October 14 to replace David Weigand, according to an SEC filing. The hire comes nearly two years after Super Micro committed to finding a more experienced finance chief. Its investor relations materials show revenue grew 77.8% in the same year the cash drained.
Why a Profitable Company Burned Nearly $7 Billion
Almost all of the burn came in one quarter. Free cash flow was negative $6.70 billion in the March quarter, then swung to positive $719 million in June.
Even so, June’s operating cash flow of $747 million landed 83% below the Street’s estimate. Consensus still sees fiscal 2027 free cash flow of around negative $1.3 billion. In June, Super Micro announced a $7 billion equity financing package that included an at-the-market stock program of up to $2 billion.
At the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 10, Michael Staiger, SVP of Corporate Development, said capital intensity has been high and that Super Micro is working on customer terms and delivery timing. “So we’re making conscious efforts to improve that as we move forward so that we can become self-funded downstream,” he said. He added that returning capital to shareholders is “probably going to be a little while.”
CEO Charles Liang said he is “confident Mark will have an immediate positive impact in strengthening and accelerating our operational and financial execution.” Cash conversion is the most measurable place for that impact to show up.
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The Selloff Started Before the CFO News
The stock was already under pressure when the CFO news hit. Benzinga tied the October 14 decline to two things. One was the export-control case, in which a contractor pleaded guilty on October 8 to helping divert servers with Nvidia (NVDA) chips to China. The other was a broad tech selloff. Shares closed at $35.78 that day.
Co-founder Wally Liaw, charged in the same case, has pleaded not guilty. Super Micro itself is not a defendant. Server peers also fell October 14 after Barclays cut Dell Technologies (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) to Equal Weight, and Dell dropped 11.4%.
The CFO announcement came before the October 15 open. Shares were down 4.71% at $34.10 by midday, which Benzinga again tied to the export case and a 2.1% tech-sector drop, then closed at $35.09, down 1.93%.
At 8.09 times NTM P/E, Super Micro trades at under half of Dell’s 16.82 times and Western Digital’s 17.36 times, and below HPE’s 12.60 times. Analysts lean cautious: 2 Buys, 2 Outperforms, 11 Holds, 1 Underperform, and 2 Sells, with a mean target of $42.27.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $35.09
- Target Price (Mid): ~$72
- Potential Total Return: ~105%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Super Micro stock (It’s free!) >>>
The mid-case targets around $72 by June 30, 2031, a roughly 105% total return and about 70% above the Street’s mean target. The model’s forecast table assumes mid-case revenue growth of around 17% a year, net margins near 5%, and a P/E multiple that shrinks about 2% a year.
Higher-margin software remains small. Staiger put fiscal 2026 software and services revenue at roughly $538 million, about 1.4% of sales.
The primary risk is working capital. Upside: cash flow turns positive and gross margin holds above 10%. Downside: renewed cash drains could mean more stock sales under the at-the-market program.
Conclusion
The fiscal first-quarter report, expected in early November, gives Long his first scorecard. Positive operating cash flow for the September quarter would suggest fiscal 2026 was a timing problem. Another multibillion-dollar outflow would suggest June’s financing bought time rather than a fix.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
