Key Stats for RSG Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 5%
- 52-Week Range: $201 to $259
- Valuation Model Target Price: $292
- Implied Upside: 32%
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What Happened?
Republic Services, Inc. stock traded near $222 per share, rising about 5% year to date in 2026 as investors rotated toward defensive, cash-generating businesses with strong pricing power while remaining cautious on more cyclical parts of the economy.
Waste management companies have stayed in focus because they provide essential services with recurring revenue, and peers like Waste Management and Waste Connections have seen similar steady performance as investors favor stability over economic sensitivity.
The stock is up this year mainly because the company delivered strong and predictable earnings, reinforcing confidence that it can continue growing profits even in a mixed economic environment.
Republic Services reported 2025 revenue up 3.5%, adjusted EBITDA rising nearly 7%, adjusted EPS of $7.02, and adjusted free cash flow of $2.43 billion, while full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points to 32.0%.
CEO Jon Vander Ark said the company delivered “another strong year of performance,” and management guided for 2026 revenue of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28, signaling continued steady growth driven largely by pricing and cost control.
Recent analyst updates have been active and somewhat mixed, shaping sentiment around valuation levels. Bank of America lowered its price target from $271 to $241, while Morgan Stanley trimmed its target from $230 to $225 with an equal weight rating, suggesting more limited upside after the recent rally.
At the same time, Citigroup raised its price target from $244 to $253 and maintained a buy rating, while Sanford C. Bernstein increased its target from $205 to $220 and Weiss Ratings reiterated a buy rating, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s long-term earnings durability despite near-term valuation sensitivity.
Recent 13F filings showed continued accumulation alongside selective trimming. Chilton Investment increased its stake by 4.2% to about 1.35 million shares worth roughly $311 million, while Earnest Partners held about 1.1 million shares valued near $252 million.
Other notable moves included Legal & General increasing its stake by 9.2% to about 1.29 million shares and Magnetar Financial increasing its position by over 470%, while Franklin Resources trimmed its stake by 8.1%.
Overall institutional ownership remains high at about 58%, indicating that large investors continue to view Republic Services as a stable, long-term cash flow compounder.
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Is RSG Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.5%
- Operating Margins: 21.1%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 30.5x
Revenue growth is expected to remain steady in the mid-single-digit range, mainly driven by pricing rather than higher volumes, as construction and manufacturing activity remain somewhat soft.
This reflects how the business works, since waste companies operate local networks of trucks and landfills that allow them to regularly raise prices for essential services with limited competition.
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Margins are expected to expand gradually as Republic Services improves efficiency through route optimization, automation, and better landfill utilization.
These improvements matter because even small cost savings across a large, recurring revenue base can meaningfully increase profits and free cash flow over time.
Compared to peers like Waste Management and Waste Connections, Republic Services operates a similar business model with strong pricing discipline, which helps explain why the entire industry tends to trade at premium valuations relative to more cyclical industrial companies.
The company is also investing in recycling and renewable natural gas projects, which can create additional revenue streams over time while supporting long-term growth.
At the same time, management continues to prioritize pricing over volume, which helps protect margins even when demand is uneven.
At current levels, Republic Services appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued, with future performance likely driven by pricing power, steady margin expansion, and consistent free cash flow generation rather than rapid revenue growth.
How Much Upside Does RSG Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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