Key Stats for Pfizer Stock
- Current Price: $25.62
- TIKR Target Price (Mid Case): ~$28
- Street Mean Target: ~$29
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~10%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~2% / year
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What Happened?
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) has spent three years trying to convince investors that losing roughly half its revenue when COVID demand cratered was a fixable problem. On June 8, CEO Albert Bourla presented at the Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference in Miami and made the most specific version of that argument yet.
The market remains skeptical, and for understandable reasons. PFE sits at $25.62, against a 52-week high of $28.75, and is down more than 56% from the $59.05 it closed at the end of 2021. What will change that picture is not another conference presentation. It is clinical data, and the most important readout of the year is approaching.
What Bourla Said at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider, who hosted the session, opened by asking whether the structural transformation was done or whether more enterprise-level moves were still needed. Bourla’s answer was direct. He identified three things that needed rebuilding after the COVID shock: the commercial model, manufacturing cost structure, and R&D prioritization. His view is that the first two are largely fixed, and that the R&D issue was never a capability problem.
“If it is just to fix the focus or where we put where we turn the cannons, I think it’s much, much simpler and faster, which is what we have done,” Bourla said.
On the long-term outlook, he pushed back against treating Pfizer’s 2029 high single-digit revenue compound annual growth rate target as a vision statement. He framed it as a bottom-up build from modeled in-line product trajectories, predictable loss-of-exclusivity curves, and a risk-adjusted pipeline large enough that individual trial failures do not derail the aggregate math.
The supporting evidence is already in the quarterly numbers. The new launch and business development portfolio generated $3.1 billion in Q1 2026, up 22% operationally, which Bourla described as a “$12 billion annualized business that is growing exponentially.” The Seagen portfolio delivered 20% revenue growth in Q1, years after the acquisition closed, and Nurtec, the company’s migraine treatment, grew 42% operationally in the same period. Both figures were cited directly by Bourla at the conference.
The commercial progress is real. What moves the stock is whether the pipeline delivers.
The Cancer Readout This Summer
The most immediate catalyst on Pfizer’s calendar is the Phase 3 result for sigvotatug vedotin (SV), an antibody-drug conjugate (a targeted cancer therapy that delivers a cytotoxic payload directly to tumor cells) from the Seagen acquisition. The Be6A LUNG-01 trial is testing SV against standard docetaxel chemotherapy in second-line non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, the world’s most common cancer type, with a readout expected mid-2026.
Pfizer recently amended the trial’s primary endpoint to focus solely on overall survival. According to BMO Capital Markets analysts, as cited by BioSpace, the change concentrates all statistical power on the outcome that regulators and oncologists care about most. UBS has said the trial has “a reasonable chance” for a statistically significant result.
Bourla was candid about the risk. “No ADC so far was able to be successful” in monotherapy versus monotherapy in this setting, he said. That acknowledged, he was more confident about the first-line SV combination study, which reads out roughly a year later. He called the combination probability “pretty much derisked” through the Padcev track record with vedotin-based payloads. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger has described SV as a potential blockbuster for NSCLC.
A positive second-line result validates the Seagen bet in the largest oncology market. A miss removes the nearest high-conviction catalyst from Pfizer’s 2026 story.
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The Obesity Program: A 2028 Story
Two days before the Goldman Sachs conference, Pfizer presented Phase 2b data for berobenatide (PF-3944), its investigational once-monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist (a class of injectable weight-loss drugs that mimic a gut hormone to reduce appetite), at the American Diabetes Association’s 86th Scientific Sessions on June 6, 2026.
The VESPER-1 Phase 2b data showed a 15.9% non-placebo-adjusted weight reduction at 32 weeks with no plateau observed, per Pfizer’s press release. Pfizer is advancing more than 10 Phase 3 studies for berobenatide in 2026. PFE shares fell roughly 1.3% on the announcement day, per Benzinga, as analyst reactions were mixed. Guggenheim Partners described the results as “solid, but also relatively undifferentiated from other options that are either already on the market or ahead of berobenatide in development.” BMO Capital Markets called the tolerability profile “manageable” and supportive of Phase 3 advancement.
At Goldman Sachs, Bourla’s competitive argument rested on two points: monthly dosing convenience versus the weekly injections required by Lilly’s tirzepatide and Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, and a manufacturing cost advantage because berobenatide requires significantly less active pharmaceutical ingredient per dose than competing therapies.
The timeline is important context, though. Leerink Partners’ Risinger noted that initial Phase 3 monthly data may not arrive until 2028, and the weekly formulation launch is also targeted for 2028. Berobenatide supports the 2029 growth thesis but is not a near-term catalyst.
How Pfizer’s Valuation Compares
At an NTM EV/EBITDA of 8.10x, Pfizer trades at a significant discount to Eli Lilly (LLY) at 23.30x and AstraZeneca (AZN) at 13.70x, and roughly in line with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) at 8.10x, per TIKR’s Competitors page. On NTM P/E, Pfizer at 9.00x compares to Lilly at 30.83x and AstraZeneca at 17.31x.
The Lilly discount is not irrational. Lilly’s obesity franchise is generating revenue at scale while Pfizer’s is still in Phase 3. BMY is the more instructive peer: similar multiples, similar patent cliff dynamics, and a similar bet on the pipeline to drive the next growth cycle.
Bourla also highlighted the PD-1 x VEGF bispecific program at Goldman Sachs, with eight Phase 3 studies underway in lung, colorectal, and endometrial cancer. He cited Phase II data from Pfizer’s own 4404 program showing a 77% response rate in an enriched PD-L1 positive population, versus 45% for Keytruda in a comparable (though not identical) population. He was careful to flag that cross-trial comparisons are imperfect, calling them useful only for understanding magnitude rather than making direct comparisons.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $25.62
- Target Price (Mid Case): ~$28
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~10%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~2% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model projects a revenue CAGR of around -1% from 2025 through 2035E. The two headwinds are ongoing COVID franchise decay and loss-of-exclusivity pressure on established products. The offset is the new launch portfolio’s 22% growth rate and the pipeline’s risk-adjusted contribution post-2028. Net income margin in the mid case holds around 25%, per TIKR.
On a longer 2035E horizon, the high case model prices PFE at around $38, implying roughly 49% total return and around 5% annualized IRR, contingent on the clinical programs overdelivering. The low case prices at around $29, implying roughly 13% total return and around 1% IRR if the LOE cliff hits harder than modeled and pipeline programs disappoint.
With free cash flow of $9.075 billion in FY 2025 and a 6.8% NTM dividend yield per TIKR, the stock has an income floor while the pipeline plays out. But at around 2% annualized mid-case IRR, PFE is not a deep-value entry point. It is a hold for income-oriented investors and a speculative buy only if the SV readout this summer comes in positive.
Conclusion
Bourla’s turnaround argument is coherent, the commercial momentum is real, and the pipeline is broad enough to absorb individual failures. What is missing is proof.
The Be6A LUNG-01 overall survival readout, expected mid-2026, is the clearest near-term test. A positive result would be the first concrete clinical validation that Pfizer’s oncology pipeline can deliver in the world’s most important cancer market and would change the tone of the stock for the rest of the year. A miss makes the 2029 thesis significantly harder to hold at current prices.
That readout is the threshold. Watch for it this summer.
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Should You Invest in Pfizer?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
