Key Takeaways
- Palantir stock has climbed 77% since late June, with the sharpest leg arriving after Q2 revenue grew 93% YoY to $1.94B.
- Management lifted FY26 revenue guidance to ~$8.15B and U.S. commercial guidance above $3.42B, and September deals with Nebius and Nvidia extended the sovereign AI pitch into infrastructure.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values PLTR at $1,344, a 608% total return.
Why Palantir Stock Has Climbed 77% Since Late June
Palantir (PLTR) stock has gained 77% since late June and closed at $190 on September 25. One earnings report explains most of the move.
On Monday, August 3, Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year over year, its fastest growth rate ever. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% to $764 million. The stock leapt from the low $120s to above $160 within days.
The guidance mattered more than the quarter itself. Palantir raised its full-year revenue midpoint to $8.154 billion, which works out to 82% growth and was its largest guidance raise. So the price has been chasing a bigger earnings base.
Management calls the demand driver sovereign AI, meaning companies keep control of their data and model weights instead of handing them to frontier labs. CEO Alex Karp set the bar on the Q2 earnings call: “I am driving the business to grow at a rate equal or above to what we have in U.S. commercial for the next 18 months, which is a very high goal.” That target now sits inside the share price.
September put infrastructure behind the pitch. Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner on September 8. Two days later, it brought Nvidia’s Nemotron open models into its Foundry and AIP platforms.
Yet the same sovereignty argument works against Palantir abroad. Germany’s military ruled out the Maven Smart System and is testing 30 alternatives, and international commercial revenue grew just 26% in Q2.
Palantir stock’s 77% run is a U.S. earnings story, and Karp’s 18-month growth target is the number that has to keep delivering.
TIKR Values Palantir Stock at $1,344 on Its Sovereign AI Growth Path
TIKR’s mid-case model values Palantir at $1,344 by December 2030. That implies a 608% total return from the current price of $190, or 58% annualized over 4.3 years.
That annualized rate dwarfs the low-teens returns investors usually accept from large-cap software. The gap exists because the model extends the growth Palantir reported in Q2 and guided for 2026, and the 77% run has priced in only the first stretch of that path. Europe remains the friction, but U.S. commercial demand carries the return.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
