Key Takeaways
- Affirm stock has climbed 59% since late March, closing at $72 on September 25, but it has given back its entire post-earnings jump from above $90 on August 28.
- Fiscal Q4 revenue rose 33% YoY to $1.17B, beating the $1.10B estimate.
- Analysts hold 21 buys, 6 outperforms, and 7 holds, and their $99 mean target sits 38% above the price.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values Affirm at $133 by June 2031, an 86% total return.
Why Affirm Stock Is Up 59% Since March but Fading Since Earnings
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) stock has gained 59% since late March, closing at $72 on Friday, September 25.
Results drove the climb. At its May Investor Forum, Affirm framed the business around $100 billion in annual gross merchandise volume (GMV, the total value of purchases on its platform) and a 25% growth algorithm. The August 27 report backed that up: GMV rose 36% to $14.1 billion, and revenue grew 33% to $1.17 billion against a $1.10 billion estimate. Operating margin nearly doubled to 12.6% from 6.6%.
CEO Max Levchin opened the fiscal Q4 call on profitability: “fiscal fourth quarter was our most profitable quarter ever, even without the tax allowance release.” That caveat matters, because reported net income of $1.62 billion included a one-time tax benefit. Affirm then guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, above the $1.14 billion consensus, and the stock jumped 15% in early trading on August 28.
The gain didn’t last. Chief Operating Officer Michael Linford, named president the day before, sold 79,219 shares at $90.01 on August 28 after exercising options. CFO Rob O’Hare and Chief Accounting Officer Siphelele Jiyane sold more stock in early September at prices between $72 and $74 (O’Hare; Jiyane on September 4 and September 14). Affirm’s September 17 update pointed the other way: the company said a new AI underwriting model lifted completed purchases 3.4% in tests.
The Street moved the other way. Affirm stock carries 21 buys, 6 outperforms, and 7 holds, and the $99 mean target sits 39% above the close, up from $80 at the end of March. Separately, 32 analysts publish a price target, up from 26 in March.
The rally since March followed the earnings. The September fade came alongside insider selling, while the business numbers held.
Affirm guided fiscal Q1 revenue above consensus. Track Affirm’s quarterly results on TIKR for free →
TIKR Values Affirm Stock at $133, Above the Street’s $99 Target
TIKR’s mid-case model values Affirm at $133 by June 2031, implying an 86% total return from the current price of $72, or 14% annualized over 4.8 years.
That rate sits above what investors typically expect from a payments company, and it shows the $72 price still leaves room after a 59% run.
The September fade came without a change in the numbers. The model gives more weight to 36% GMV growth and an above-consensus Q1 guide than to a month of insider selling.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
