Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly stock has climbed 31% over the past six months, though shares sit only ~7% above their 2026 starting level as of September 23.
- Q2 revenue jumped 48% YoY, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $85B-$87B.
- Mounjaro and Zepbound combined for $14.9B in Q2 sales.
- Eloralintide combination data due next week is the nearest test, with Citi calling anything above 18% weight loss a clean win.
Why Eli Lilly Stock Has Rallied 31% in Six Months
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained 31% over the past six months, closing at $1,162 on September 23. Shares are up just ~7% year to date, so much of that run has clawed back ground the stock gave up early in 2026.
Earnings did most of the work. On April 30, Lilly posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $8.55 against a $6.66 consensus, on $19.8 billion of revenue. Q2 was stronger still: revenue rose 48% year over year, adjusted EPS hit $8.38 versus a $6.01 estimate, and Lilly lifted its 2026 guidance.
Tirzepatide sits behind most of that growth. Mounjaro and Zepbound brought in $14.9 billion in Q2, and about 6 of every 10 US obesity prescriptions went to a Lilly drug. Novo Nordisk’s slide made the gap look even wider, with its shares down more than 70% from their peak.
Pipeline wins kept buyers interested between reports. The FDA approved Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill, on April 1, and retatrutide produced more than 28% weight loss in a late-stage trial.
Lilly doesn’t need a turnaround story. It already has the numbers.
What Could Keep Eli Lilly Stock’s Recovery Going
The next test comes next week, when Lilly presents mid-stage data on eloralintide, its amylin-based drug, paired with Zepbound. Citi views 16% to 18% weight loss as solid.
Over time, access matters more. Ilya Yuffa, president of Lilly USA, described how much room is left at Morgan Stanley’s healthcare conference on September 14: “We’re still in the single-digit utilization of people that could benefit from these medicines.” Medicare’s GLP-1 Bridge program has reached close to 600,000 people since July 1, and employers are locking in 2027 benefits now.
Foundayo has room to grow, too. It already holds more than 30% of new US oral GLP-1 starts and is under review in over 40 countries ahead of a 2027 global rollout. Retatrutide’s US filing follows in Q1 2027, which gives Eli Lilly stock a steady run of dated events that could extend the rebound.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
