Key Takeaways
- AppLovin stock has fallen 54% since December 31, closing at $311 on September 25 after a narrow Q2 revenue miss set off a wave of analyst downgrades.
- Q2 revenue still grew 53% YoY to $1.92B, and Q3 guidance calls for 46% to 48% growth.
- Analysts hold 20 buys, 7 outperforms, and 6 holds, and their $498 mean target sits 60% above the price.
- TIKR’s mid-case model sees $627 by December 2030, a 102% total return.
Why AppLovin Stock Has Fallen 54% in 2026 Despite 53% Revenue Growth
AppLovin (APP) stock has dropped 54% since December 31, falling from $674 to $311 by Friday, September 25. The steepest part of the drop followed a quarter that barely missed.
On February 20, the SEC said a probe involving AppLovin was “still active and ongoing,” Bloomberg News reported. Software stocks sold off through April 10 after a January Anthropic product release raised fears that AI could make many of their products obsolete. A Q1 revenue beat in May then lifted AppLovin stock back to $515 by June 30.
August 5 undid that recovery. AppLovin reported Q2 revenue of $1.924 billion against a $1.935 billion estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.61 billion missed the $1.63 billion consensus. The stock lost as much as 20% the next day.
The reason for the miss mattered more than its size. On the Q2 earnings call, CEO Adam Foroughi traced the shortfall to AppLovin’s ad-targeting models: “This quarter came down to timing. Our pace of meaningful model improvement was lighter than normal during the quarter and the next step-up in model performance landed just after quarter end.” Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler downgraded the stock on August 6. BofA followed on August 11, saying it was unclear whether AppLovin’s self-learning growth of 3% to 5% per quarter still applies.
Still, the business kept growing. Q2 revenue rose 53% year over year, and net income climbed 55% to $1.27 billion. CFO Matt Stumpf also said the SEC had closed its inquiry with no recommended action. Q3 guidance of $2.055 billion to $2.085 billion points to 46% to 48% growth.
The Street has cut its view without abandoning it. AppLovin stock carries 20 buys, 7 outperforms, and 6 holds, and the $498 mean target sits 60% above the close, down from $738 at the end of 2025. Separately, 31 analysts publish a price target, up from 25 in December.
The 54% slide prices AppLovin as a broken growth story, while its guidance describes a delayed one.
TIKR Values AppLovin Stock at $627, More Than Double Today’s Price
TIKR’s mid-case model values AppLovin at $627 by December 2030, implying a 102% total return from the current price of $311, or 18% annualized over 4.3 years.
That return is high for a business already earning $1.27 billion a quarter, which shows how much growth risk is already priced into the $311 stock.
The market treats the Q2 stall as the new normal. The model gives more weight to the Q3 guide and to the model upgrade Foroughi says went live after the quarter ended.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
