Key Takeaways
- Palantir stock is up 17.2% since early January, closing at $196.75 on October 23, after a 29.45% jump on August 4 that followed the company’s second-quarter report.
- Shares sit 83.4% above the June 25 low of $107.27.
- The Street expects normalized EPS of $1.62 for 2026 and $2.36 for 2027, which puts the stock at 121.5x this year’s estimate even after October’s pullback from a record $209.05 close.
- Palantir reports on November 2, guiding Q3 revenue to $2.16B to $2.164B.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock is up 17.2% since early January, closing at $196.75 on October 23. That return hides how the year actually went. On August 3, the stock sat 25.2% below where the period began, by my math, and a single session after the company’s second-quarter report did most of the repair work.
Palantir stock jumped 29.45% on August 4 and went on to set a record close of $209.05 in October. The business never had a bad quarter along the way. The price did.
Why Palantir Stock Sank While the Numbers Climbed
The first leg down came in January and February, as software stocks sold off on fears that AI could disrupt the sector, a link Barron’s drew directly for Palantir. The company’s own February 2 report didn’t stop it. Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $1.407 billion, ahead of the $1.329 billion IBES estimate, but the stock gave back its early pop within days.
May followed the same script. First-quarter revenue rose 85% to $1.633 billion, U.S. revenue growth crossed 100% for the first time, and management lifted full-year guidance to $7.65 billion to $7.662 billion. Shares kept drifting lower.
The bottom came in late June. Palantir stock lost 20.4% in a seven-session losing streak from June 16 to June 25, closing at $107.27. That was its low for the period and 36.1% below where January started. The rebound began on June 26 with a 5.28% gain. The following Monday, June 29, Palantir announced a strategic initiative with Nvidia (NVDA) to run Nvidia AI and Nemotron open models in sovereign environments, aimed at U.S. government agencies. The stock rose for seven straight sessions through July 7, a 25.3% climb to $134.37.
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The August 4 Session That Rewrote Palantir’s Year
Palantir closed at $125.65 on August 3, then released a second-quarter report that beat on nearly every line. Revenue rose 93% to $1.935 billion, U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% to $764 million, and adjusted free cash flow reached $1.22 billion, a 63% margin. Full-year revenue guidance moved to $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion. That was the company’s largest full-year guidance raise ever, adding $498 million at the midpoint.
The stock jumped 29.45% to $162.66 the next day. On the second-quarter earnings call, CEO Alex Karp set the bar for what comes next:
“I am driving the business to grow at a rate equal or above to what we have in U.S. commercial for the next 18 months, which is a very high goal.”
He was talking about the whole business, and U.S. commercial had just grown 149%. That’s the bar he set for the company over the next year and a half.
From a Record Close to a 7.22% Slide
The climb carried into the fall. Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral on October 8 with a $230 target, pointing to demand for sovereign AI. Palantir stock went on to close at a period high of $209.05, above its previous record close of $207.18 from November 3, 2025.
It didn’t hold. Shares fell 7.22% to $186.03 on October 16 as a broad tech selloff hit highly valued AI names, leaving them 11.0% below the high. They have since recovered 5.8% to $196.75.
The closing-price chart puts the whole year in one frame. The average close since January is $153.59. Even after October’s giveback, shares trade 28.1% above their typical level this year and 83.4% above the June low. That’s a lot of ground covered in four months.
Palantir Stock’s Earnings Bar Keeps Rising
The Street expects normalized EPS of $1.62 for 2026, up 116.0% from $0.75 in 2025, then $2.36 in 2027 and $3.39 in 2028. At $196.75, that’s 121.5x this year’s estimate and 83.4x next year’s. Palantir has already booked $0.74 in adjusted EPS across the first two quarters ($0.33, then $0.41, which included a $0.02 lift from unrealized gains on its SpaceX (SPCX) stake). Reaching $1.62 needs $0.88 in the back half. The bigger leap sits further out: estimates climb 67.0% to $5.66 in 2029 after two years in the mid-40s. A large part of today’s price rests on growth that hasn’t shown up yet.
What November 2 Has to Show for Palantir Stock
Palantir reports third-quarter results on November 2 after the close. It guided revenue to $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion and adjusted operating income to $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion. That’s a margin near 59.9% at the midpoint, against 62% in the second quarter, and CFO David Glazer flagged a seasonal ramp in expenses.
U.S. commercial growth is the first number I’d watch. Its 149% second-quarter pace sets a demanding comparison, while management’s full-year guidance calls for growth of at least 134%. At 121.5x this year’s earnings, a print that slides well short of 149% leaves the October record looking like it priced in more than the business delivered. Overseas is the second line to watch. International commercial revenue grew just 26% in the second quarter, and Reuters reported that Thales (HOP) launched its Hexaforce command software in September as an alternative to Maven, Palantir’s military AI system. A U.S. commercial print near 149% gives the $209.05 high something solid underneath it. Anything well below that, and the 83.4% run from June has less to stand on.
So What Is Palantir Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
