Key Takeaways
- SpaceX stock is up 24.7% since late July, closing at $147.49 on October 23, after recovering from a 13.61% drop on August 5 that followed $18.37B of Q2 capital spending.
- Analysts expect revenue to reach $177.34B in 2027, up from $48.56B this year.
- First-quarter 2027 guidance calls for $33B to $37B in revenue.
- Starship Flight 15 next month will try to catch both stages.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock is up 24.7% since late July, closing at $147.49 on October 23, after the shares climbed out of an August low set when SpaceX’s first earnings report showed $18.37 billion of capital spending in a single quarter.
But the gain was bigger three weeks ago. SpaceX stock closed at $171.09 on October 5. A third quarter that beat revenue forecasts by $1.84 billion still left it 13.8% below that close, by my math.
SpaceX Stock Found Its Floor in the August Capex Scare
SpaceX reported second-quarter results on August 4. Revenue rose 92% to $7.81 billion, but capital spending reached $18.37 billion, $15.83 billion of it in the AI segment. That’s 2.35 times the quarter’s revenue going back out the door. The stock fell 13.61% on August 5.
The rebound started the next day. Up to 911.5 million insider shares became free to sell on August 6, and SpaceX stock rose 6.1% to $114.92 anyway. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas called the lockup expiry a chance to buy cheaply and said the stock could reach $300 by the middle of 2027.
From there, the shares worked into the $140s by mid-August and the low $150s through September. Starship Flight 14 reached orbit for the first time on September 28 and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, SpaceX’s first revenue-generating Starship mission.
Morgan Stanley’s Note Sent SPCX to Its October High
The top came on October 5, when the stock jumped 7.63% to $171.09, its highest close since mid-June. CNBC tied the move to a Sunday Morgan Stanley note that called the shares “cheap” and kept the $300 target.
Three days later, SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum licenses from Grain Management. The Wall Street Journal valued the deal at about $8 billion, and it still needs Federal Communications Commission approval. Low-band airwaves travel farther and get through walls, which is what Starlink Mobile needs to compete as a carrier. Verizon (VZ)posted its worst day since 2002, and AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) also fell hard.
SpaceX’s own stock didn’t hold up either. Another lockup release of up to 328.4 million shares came on October 9, and the stock closed at $146.03 on October 16, down 14.6% from the October 5 high.
TIKR Tracks 40 Analysts on SpaceX. How Many Say “Buy”?
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A $14.58 Billion Quarter Couldn’t Keep the Bounce
SpaceX’s third-quarter report on October 20 was its first real profit as a public company. Revenue rose 161% to $14.58 billion against the $12.74 billion analysts expected. Net income came in at $4.4 billion after a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier. The Super Intelligence segment, home to the AI compute SpaceX rents out, did more than half the work at $7.6 billion.
On the Q3 2026 earnings call, CFO Bret Johnsen went a step further: “We now see total company revenues in the range of $33 billion to $37 billion for Q1 of 2027.” The midpoint is 2.4 times the quarter SpaceX just reported. He also guided fourth-quarter capital spending to $35 billion to $40 billion, 1.9 to 2.2 times the $18.37 billion that started the August sell-off.
The shares rose 2.35% to $151.26 after hours and pushed into the high $150s on October 21. They gave it back on October 22, closing at $144.75, then added 1.89% on October 23 to finish at $147.49.
What the Street Now Expects From SpaceX in 2027
Analysts expect revenue to jump from $48.56 billion in 2026 to $177.34 billion in 2027 and $327.62 billion in 2028. If the first quarter lands at the $35 billion midpoint, the other three quarters of 2027 need $142.34 billion between them, or $47.45 billion each. That’s 3.3 times what SpaceX booked in the third quarter.
Earnings follow the same steep line, from a $0.16 loss per share this year to $2.50 in 2027 and $5.35 in 2028. At $147.49, that’s 59.0 times 2027 earnings and 27.6 times 2028, by my math. The stock is cheap only if the 2028 number shows up.
The December Number SpaceX Holders Should Track
SpaceX says it’s still on track for a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end, calculated from December’s revenue. That means one month of $8.33 billion in revenue, against a third-quarter average of $4.86 billion a month.
Hitting it would make the $33 billion to $37 billion first-quarter guide look like a continuation rather than a leap, and give the Street’s 2027 estimate a real starting point. Missing it would leave SpaceX stock leaning on a $35 billion to $40 billion spending quarter with less revenue to show for it. Before that, Starship Flight 15 next month will try to catch both the booster and the ship, which Elon Musk called “more likely than not” to succeed.
So What Is SpaceX Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
