Key Stats for Palantir Stock
- Current Price: $186.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,330
- Street Target: ~$206
- Potential Total Return: ~613%
- Annualized IRR: ~59% / year
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What Happened?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed at $186.03 on October 16, down 7.22%, one week after its record close of $209.05 on October 9. Shares now sit 11.01% below that record, past the 10% decline that marks a correction.
The selling hit the whole sector. During the session, 43 of 45 stocks in a Yahoo Finance software basket were falling, and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) was down nearly 5%. Reports on the drop pointed to the software selloff and valuation worries rather than a Palantir announcement. The company’s latest deal, disclosed a day earlier, and the Q2 figures in its investor relations materials say more about where revenue is heading.
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A Bank Already Working With OpenAI Added Palantir
On October 15, Customers Bank, the subsidiary of Customers Bancorp (CUBI) with nearly $27 billion in assets, announced it will deploy Palantir’s Foundry and AIP for deposit onboarding. No contract value or term was disclosed, and Palantir shares traded lower that session. The bank already has a multiyear collaboration with OpenAI that also covers deposit onboarding, so Palantir enters as a second AI vendor on the same workflow.
That setup matches how management described the business on the Q2 call. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria asked whether customers can swap models if one gets pulled. CEO Alex Karp answered: “We have a product that allows you to switch out models.” In that framing, a bank that already buys from OpenAI can still become a large Palantir customer, because Palantir sells the layer that assigns models to tasks. The open question is size. This is a first workflow at a regional bank, and the release gives no sign yet of a larger contract.
Record Deal Counts Explain the 98-Times Multiple
Q2 suggests first workflows are turning into large contracts. Palantir closed 220 deals worth $1 million or more, including 73 worth $10 million or more. Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor called these “record highs across the board.” U.S. commercial bookings reached $2.132 billion in total contract value, nearly $800 million above the prior record quarter, according to CFO Dave Glazer. Net dollar retention of 157% shows existing customers keep spending more.
That is why Palantir still trades at a P/E of about 98 times NTM earnings after the drop. Microsoft (MSFT) trades at about 27 times, ServiceNow (NOW) at about 31 times, and SAP (SAP) at about 26 times. Revenue growth of 82%, the 2026 guidance set in August, earns a premium. But a gap that wide also means sector selloffs land hard, as October 16 showed.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $186.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,330
- Potential Total Return: ~613%
- Annualized IRR: ~59% / year
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The mid case points to around $1,330 by December 31, 2030. That is a total return of about 613%, or about 59% a year from $186.03. At today’s 2.40 billion shares, that price implies a market value of about $3.2 trillion, roughly 81% of Microsoft’s current $3,928.48 billion. That is the scale the model asks Palantir to reach in a little over four years.
The upside comes if record-size deals keep stacking and retention holds near 157%. The risk is growth slowing while the multiple compresses from 98 times, which would pull the target down fast. The Street’s mean target of around $206 sits about 11% above the October 16 close.
Conclusion
Palantir reports Q3 results on November 2 after the market close. U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% in Q2, against full-year guidance of at least 134%. A Q3 rate at or above 149%, with another record count of $10 million-plus deals, would support the premium the stock still carries. A slide toward the 134% guide would make 98 times much harder to defend.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
