Key Stats for NVIDIA Stock
- This Week Performance: 3%
- 52-Week Range: $87 to $212
- Current Price: $188
What Happened to NVIDIA Stock?
Nvidia (NVDA) stock trades at $188, sitting roughly 11% below its 52-week high of $212 but still 117% above its 52-week low of $87, reflecting a stock that has weathered significant volatility as markets debate the pace and sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.
A cascade of major deals drove renewed conviction in Nvidia’s demand story, with Apollo and xAI nearing a $3.4 billion chip-leasing deal, ByteDance committing over $22 billion in AI procurement with Nvidia chips taking the majority, and Australian firm Firmus launching a $10 billion data center build in collaboration with Nvidia.
The demand signal extends beyond individual deals, as Nvidia confirmed it will lease its own data center funded by $3.8 billion in junk bonds, ByteDance plans to receive its first SeedChip samples by end of March while still sourcing H200s from Nvidia, and the four largest U.S. tech giants plan to spend $650 billion on capex in 2026 alone.
Markets are beginning to re-rate Nvidia from a chip supplier into the foundational layer of a new computing era, with Jensen Huang’s AI Summit appearance making clear that Vera Rubin is on track for 2026 with Cisco as a launch partner, and that Nvidia’s ecosystem now spans chip design tools, networking, security, and physical AI.
Jensen Huang, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, stated at the Second Annual AI Summit “you’re not going to lose your job to AI, you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI,” grounding the urgency behind enterprise adoption as ByteDance alone committed $22 billion to AI procurement in 2026.
The regulatory picture adds a meaningful wildcard, as Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed Nvidia must accept Know-Your-Customer licensing terms on H200 sales to China while both Republican and Democratic lawmakers debate whether even Hopper-generation chips give the PLA a strategic advantage.
With the global AI infrastructure build accelerating across Australia, France, the U.S., and China simultaneously, Nvidia sits at the center of a capital deployment cycle that BofA described as a rotation from AI spenders to beneficiaries, positioning Nvidia as both the pick and the shovel of the decade’s most consequential technology build-out.
Where is the NVIDIA Stock Headed?
With billions in fresh chip-leasing deals, a $22 billion ByteDance procurement commitment, and Vera Rubin on track for 2026, the wave of demand signals surrounding Nvidia directly supports the case for continued revenue acceleration well beyond the current fiscal year.
The fundamental numbers already reflect an extraordinary growth trajectory: revenue is forecast to reach $213.61 billion in fiscal year 2026, up 63.7% from $130.50 billion the prior year, with EBITDA margins holding at 63.8% and normalized EPS growing 56.7% to $4.69.
Wall Street stands firmly behind the stock with 46 buys and 11 outperforms among 60 analysts, and a mean price target of $253.88 that implies 35.1% upside from the current $187.90 price, a target that has risen steadily from $173.55 in January 2025.
The target range stretches from a bear case low of $140.00 to a bull case high of $352.00, a spread that captures the genuine uncertainty around whether AI capex sustains at current levels or faces a spending pullback as hyperscalers demand proof of return on investment.
Given that Apollo just arranged its second multibillion-dollar Nvidia chip-leasing deal in three months and ByteDance alone is spending $22 billion on AI procurement in 2026, a mid-case valuation model prices NVDA at $445.67 by January 2030, implying a 137.2% total return and a 24.4% annualized IRR from current levels.
The primary risk is multiple compression, as Nvidia already trades at a premium valuation and any slowdown in hyperscaler capex commitments, an acceleration of in-house chip development by ByteDance, Google, or Amazon, or a tightening of China export restrictions on Hopper chips could rapidly reprice the stock toward the $140 bear case.
At $187.90 and sitting 11% below its 52-week high, Nvidia looks undervalued relative to both analyst targets and the mid-case model, but investors need confidence that the $650 billion capex cycle sustains through 2027 to fully realize that upside.
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