Key Stats for Incyte Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -7%
- 52-Week Range: $54 to $112
- Current Price: $102
What Happened to Incyte Stock?
Incyte (INCY) trades at $102, sitting roughly 9% below its 52-week high of $112.29 and well above its 52-week low of $53.56, after shares dropped around 5% following its February 10 earnings report.
Q4 2025 total revenue of $1.51 billion crushed the $1.35 billion consensus estimate, but adjusted EPS of $1.80 missed the $1.93 estimate, and the company’s 2026 net product revenue guidance of $4.77 to $4.94 billion landed well short of the $5.52 billion Wall Street expected.
The guidance shortfall centered on Opzelura, Incyte’s key growth engine meant to offset Jakafi’s looming 2028 patent expiration, with the company projecting $750 to $790 million in Opzelura sales versus analyst expectations of $801.5 million.
The market now questions whether Incyte’s core ex-Jakafi business, which management targets at $3 to $4 billion by 2030, can realistically fill the revenue gap before generic competition arrives in 2029.
William Meury, Chief Executive Officer, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “our core business, excluding Jakafi, has the potential to be as large as Jakafi is today by 2030,” anchoring that outlook to 14 pivotal trials underway across seven assets including KRAS G12D, TGF-beta x PD-1, and povorcitinib by year-end 2026.
BMO analyst Evan Seigerman noted the “softer guide for Opzelura leaves work to be done in 2026,” capturing the broader Street concern around execution before patent expiration.
Incyte’s story has shifted from a pure Jakafi dependency play into a pipeline-heavy mid-cap biotech betting on multiple first-or-best-in-class programs, but the clock on Jakafi means the next 24 months of clinical execution are critical to whether that transition succeeds.
Where is the INCY Stock Headed?
Incyte stock’s weak 2026 guidance now forces the market to price in execution risk across its pipeline transition, with Opzelura’s below-consensus forecast raising real questions about whether new products can absorb Jakafi’s revenue before the 2028 patent cliff hits.
Analysts still forecast revenue reaching $5.60 billion in 2026 on consensus estimates, with normalized EPS jumping from $1.08 in 2024 to $6.80 in 2025 and $7.42 in 2026, reflecting a dramatic margin recovery and the operating leverage management has been building through disciplined SG&A control.
Wall Street’s mean price target sits at $107.09 against a current price of $101.73, with 10 buys, 2 outperforms, 12 holds, and 2 sells among 22 analysts, implying roughly 5.3% upside from current levels.
The target range stretches from a low of $71.00 to a high of $135.00, a spread that captures the binary nature of the Jakafi cliff story and whether pipeline assets like povorcitinib, KRAS G12D, and INCY-989 can deliver on their Phase III timelines.
Given that Incyte stock now trades just below the $107 mean target after a 43% run in 2025 and an earnings-driven pullback, a mid-case DCF model prices INCY at $94.39 by December 2031, projecting a negative 7.2% total return and an annualized IRR of -1.5% which suggests the current price already bakes in a relatively optimistic pipeline outcome.
The core bear case is multiple compression combined with Jakafi revenue deteriorating faster than the ex-Jakafi business can scale, particularly if Opzelura’s formulary pricing actions depress ASPs longer than management’s 2027 rolloff projection and if povorcitinib or INCY-989 Phase III timelines slip.
At $101.73, INCY looks fairly valued to slightly stretched given the patent cliff visibility, with the real upside optionality sitting in 2027 and beyond if povorcitinib in HS, Monjuvi in first-line DLBCL, and the KRAS G12D program all execute on schedule.
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