Key Stats for Nvidia Stock
- Price change for Nvidia stock in the last 6 months: 20%
- $NVDA Stock Price as of Oct. 12: $226
- 52-Week High: $243
- $NVDA Stock Price Target: $329
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What Happened?
Nvidia’s (NVDA) share of China’s data-center AI chip market fell to 34% in the first half of 2026, according to an IDC report Reuters accessed.
US export controls limited what Nvidia could sell there, and local rivals filled the gap.
Nvidia shipped 678,000 AI accelerators to China from January to June, down 44% from the same period last year. Huawei shipped 572,000, up from more than 300,000, which gives it a 28% share.
Other Chinese chipmakers are growing too. Alibaba’s T-Head holds 7%, followed by Cambricon at 5%, Baidu’s Kunlunxin at 4%, and Hygon at 3%.
Nine of the 11 Chinese chipmakers IDC tracks shipped more than a year ago.
The chip mix is also shifting, with GPU shipments down 26% to 991,000 units. Other AI accelerators rose nearly 80% to 1.016 million units and now outnumber GPUs.
Huawei, T-Head, Kunlunxin and Cambricon make up 95% of that group.
CEO Jensen Huang has criticized the export curbs.
He says they forced a US company to hand China’s $50 billion AI chip market to Huawei. Nvidia did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Nvidia Stock
China looks like a shrinking part of the Nvidia stock story, and the company has already planned around it.
On its August earnings call, Nvidia said it shipped less than 1% of its data center revenue in H200 products to China last quarter.
It also said there is no China data center compute revenue in its forward outlook. That helps explain why the news may not shake the bigger picture.
Nvidia reported record revenue of $96 billion last quarter, more than double a year ago, while data center revenue was $89 billion.
The company expects about $108 billion next quarter. It also expects revenue to grow about 70% in fiscal 2028 and says supply limits that outlook.
IDC says competition is moving from single-chip performance to full systems and how well chips work together in a cluster.
Nvidia has pushed its full-stack platform as an edge and China is also pushing domestic alternatives.
Meanwhile, IDC expects total accelerator shipments in China to grow 19% this year, even as GPU shipments fall 9%.
For investors, demand outside China is driving Nvidia stock right now.
Losing share in China is a clear cost. But the company’s own numbers suggest the business no longer leans on that market.
Whether Nvidia stock can keep growing at this pace depends mostly on how fast it can add supply.
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So what is Nvidia stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
