Key Takeaways
- Nike stock is down 44.4% over the past year, closing at $37.13 on October 16, 2026, after the company guided fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage.
- The Street’s mean target of $37.67 sits just 1.4% above the close, with 25 holds, 8 buys, 2 outperforms, 3 underperforms, 4 sells and 1 no opinion.
- My model lands at $54.54 by May 31, 2029: a 46.9% total return, or 15.8% a year.
- Investor Day on November 16 and 17 sets the next test.
Nike (NKE) stock is down 44.4% over the past year, closing at $37.13 on October 16, 2026. The latest leg came after Nike guided fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage and unveiled an operating overhaul whose savings mostly arrive in fiscal 2029 and 2030.
Two credit agencies and a broker turned more negative within two weeks of that guide. Yet Nike stock finished the stretch above its post-earnings low. That leaves the question this piece works through: what is a Nike that shrinks before it grows worth at $37.13?
The Spring Quarter That Cost Nike Stock 26%
The first months were choppy rather than broken. Nike stock closed at $64.63 at the end of November 2025 and $62.18 at the end of February.
The break came on March 31. Nike beat on fiscal third-quarter EPS, posting $0.35 against the $0.28 analysts expected. But it guided fiscal fourth-quarter sales down 2% to 4% when the Street was looking for a small increase, and shares fell more than 10% after hours. By May 31, the quarterly close was $46.23, down 25.7% from February’s close by my math.
The June 30 report closed out a flat year. Fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $46.4 billion, and fourth-quarter EPS of $0.72 included a $0.52 benefit from expected tariff refunds. The stock kept drifting through the summer to $39.06 by August 31.
October Brought the Guide, Then the Downgrades
Nike’s fiscal first quarter, reported October 1, landed where management said it would. Revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion, Greater China dropped 26%, and EPS slipped 2% to $0.48. The problem was the rest of the year. Nike now expects adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35 for fiscal 2027, excluding approximately $0.15 of restructuring costs.
Those costs belong to Pace, Nike’s new operating overhaul. It targets approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031 for about $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges, with most of the savings landing in fiscal 2029 and 2030. CFO Dave Denton didn’t dress up the near term on the fiscal Q1 2027 earnings call:
“We expect those actions will create pressure on reported revenues for the remainder of fiscal ‘27 and into ‘28.”
The next day, Reuters had the stock down about 6% at $32.97, a near 13-year low. Then the outside reviews arrived. S&P Global Ratings cut Nike’s credit rating to A from A+ on October 5 with a negative outlook, saying it expects Nike to burn about $1.2 billion of cash a year after dividends over the next two to three years. On October 6, Berenberg moved the stock to sell from hold and cut its target to $27.50 from $49. Moody’s followed on October 15, affirming its A2 rating but switching to a negative outlook and saying it sees revenue and earnings declining into fiscal 2028.
- Hold, not buy: the Reuters research roundup in your own feed says Berenberg cut Nike “to sell from hold,” and two other reports agree. The Reuters BUZZ item had it wrong.
- “After dividends”: confirmed by a second write-up of the S&P action. I couldn’t open S&P’s report itself, so I left out the positive free cash flow figure the suggestion mentions.
- Bullets folded into prose: three bullets with bold labels broke the house format.
Nike stock still finished October 16 at $37.13. No company news in the period explains that last leg higher.
The Street Has Followed Nike Stock All the Way Down
The mean target now sits at $37.67, just 1.4% above the close. At the end of August 2025 it was $78.91 against a $77.37 close. Since then the mean has fallen 52.3% while the quarterly close fell 52.0% (by my math), so the Street cut targets almost in step with the price. Over that stretch, buys dropped from 15 to 8 and sells rose from 1 to 4, leaving 25 holds, 2 outperforms, 3 underperforms and 1 no opinion today. The lowest target is $19, and the highest is $60.
What Nike Stock Is Worth on Barely Half Its Old Margin
I didn’t give Nike its old margins back. Five years ago, Nike’s operating margin was 15.6%; a year ago, it was 8.0%. My model has it averaging 8.0% through 2030, which assumes Pace only offsets the drag from shrinking sales (Nike says fiscal 2027 EBIT falls faster than revenue) rather than restoring the old business.
Revenue gets no help either. I have it shrinking 1.0% a year, under the 0.8% five-year pace, because Denton and Moody’s both see declines running into fiscal 2028. And the exit multiple is 25.0x, below the 28.7x the stock traded at a year ago and the 31.3x of five years ago.
Even on those numbers, my model lands at $54.54 by May 31, 2029. That’s a 46.9% total return from $37.13 over 2.6 years, or 15.8% a year, and $16.87 above the Street’s mean.
The catch is the margin. Averaging 8% means the later years have to make up for fiscal 2027, and the guide implies a lower margin this year. If Pace can’t lift margins above 8.0% by fiscal 2029 and 2030, the 15.8% shrinks with it.
The November Dates Nike Stock Holders Should Circle
Nike’s Investor Day on November 16 and 17 is where Denton promised a financial algorithm covering the next five years, top line and bottom line. A fiscal 2029 margin target above 8.0%, with a date for revenue to grow again, would back the 15.8% a year. A plan that leaves margins short of the 8.0% average my model assumes would pull the $54.54 down with it, all else equal.
Before then, Nike has flagged a headwind of approximately 400 basis points to fiscal second-quarter revenue from tough comparisons: EMEA Cyber Week and North America sell-in. A soft second quarter won’t settle much. The margin path in November will.
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