Key Stats for Nebius Stock
- 52-Week Range: $43.89 – $298.80
- Current Price: $285.63
- Street Mean Target: ~$244
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $399M (up 684% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $129.5M (vs. a $53.7M loss a year ago)
- Contracted Backlog: ~$46B
- YTD Return: ~219%
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From $12 Million to $399 Million in Eight Quarters
Nebius is an AI cloud company, which means it builds and operates the GPU-powered data center infrastructure that developers and enterprises need to train, fine-tune, and deploy AI models.
Think of it as the picks-and-shovels play on the AI boom, except instead of selling to individual miners, Nebius is selling compute capacity directly to Meta and Microsoft under multi-year contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.
The revenue chart tells the story more clearly than any description could.
Eight quarters ago, Nebius was generating $12 million in quarterly revenue. By Q1 2026, that number was $399 million, up 684% year over year and 75% sequentially from Q4 2025. CFO Dado Alonso put it simply on the earnings call: the company sold out its capacity again, because demand continued to exceed available supply.
That is not a demand problem. That is a capacity problem, and Nebius is spending aggressively to solve it, with capital expenditures of $2.5 billion in Q1 alone and a new 1.2 gigawatt AI factory announced in Pennsylvania. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance sits at $3 to $3.4 billion, supported by over 3 gigawatts of contracted power.
The validation at the top of the market is real and worth taking seriously. NVIDIA has committed to investing $2 billion in Nebius by 2030. When the dominant GPU manufacturer backs one of its customers directly, it signals who gets prioritized when hardware supply is constrained.
The contracted backlog of approximately $46 billion, anchored by a $27 billion capacity deal with Meta and a $17 billion revenue agreement with Microsoft, provides a foundation that most companies this size could only dream about.
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The Stock Is Already Pricing in a Lot
Here is where experienced investors need to slow down and think carefully. Nebius now trades at a $73 billion market cap. The Street’s mean target sits around $244, which is actually below where the stock trades today.
That alone is worth noting: the consensus analyst community, which is generally bullish on this name, thinks the stock has run past fair value in the near term.
The drawdowns chart explains why this stock demands respect in both directions.
Even on the way to a 219% year-to-date gain, Nebius has experienced multiple drawdowns of 30% to 45%. The max drawdown hit 45% in early February, a gut-check moment for anyone holding a large position.
This is not a stock that grinds quietly higher. It moves violently, in both directions, on news flow, sentiment shifts, and the broader AI trade. Owning it requires conviction and a stomach for that kind of volatility.
The financial picture also has complexity beneath the surface. The GAAP net income of $621 million in Q1 looks extraordinary until you see that $780 million of it came from a one-time gain on the revaluation of equity securities, not operations.
The adjusted net loss was actually $100 million, wider than the $84 million loss in Q1 2025. The business is not yet profitable on a cash earnings basis, and with $2.5 billion in quarterly capex and debt approaching $8.5 billion, the capital intensity of the buildout is substantial.
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Should You Invest in Nebius Group
Nebius is a genuine business at the center of a genuine demand cycle, backed by the most credible names in AI and growing at a pace that almost never happens at this scale.
It is also a stock trading above its consensus target, burning cash on an enormous infrastructure buildout, and subject to the kind of drawdowns that test conviction in real time.
Pull up Nebius on TIKR, review the revenue trajectory alongside capital commitments, and decide whether the backlog justifies the valuation at current prices. This one is not for every portfolio, but the underlying story is hard to dismiss
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
