Key Takeaways
- Elon Musk said Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around mid-2027 to make room for more Cybercab output.
- The “other models” line that includes the truck was under 2% of third-quarter deliveries.
- ARK puts the Cybercab at 20 cents a mile, half Waymo’s cost, but Tesla hasn’t hit its own 30-cent target.
- At 161x forward earnings, the stock already prices in a Cybercab win, so 2027 Robotaxi revenue is the test.
Tesla (TSLA) is winding down its most famous flop.
“Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production,” Elon Musk posted on X on Friday, Nov. 6. Reuters noted that Austin is the only known Tesla plant equipped to build the truck’s specialized parts.
That floor space goes to a robotaxi that ARK Invest figures will cost half as much per mile to run as Waymo, the robotaxi service owned by Alphabet (GOOG).
On X, Musk called the Cybertruck the “best vehicle Tesla has ever made.” Buyers disagreed. Tesla sold 20,237 Cybertrucks in the US in 2025, down 48% from 38,965 in 2024, according to Kelley Blue Book data cited by Reuters. Before the truck launched, Musk had predicted 250,000 a year.
Not even close.
Wall Street Is Betting on a Rebound
Tesla’s revenue slipped from $97.7 billion in 2024 to $94.8 billion in 2025. Analysts expect $108 billion this year and $146 billion by 2028, 54% above 2025’s total.
The Cybertruck won’t supply much of that. Tesla’s “other models” line, which includes the truck, delivered 8,295 vehicles in the third quarter, down from 15,933 a year earlier and under 2% of its 486,532 total. Handing the truck’s floor space to the Cybercab costs Tesla very little.
Floor Space Tesla Already Has
Capital spending rose from $6.5 billion in 2021 to $11.3 billion in 2024, then dipped to $8.5 billion in 2025.
On the Oct. 21 call, management cut its 2026 guide to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, still more than twice 2025’s. Floor space in a plant Tesla already runs is about as cheap as new Cybercab capacity gets.
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Half Waymo’s Cost, on Paper
On the Moonshots podcast, Peter Diamandis read out Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest figures: “In terms of dollars per mile, the cyber cab is coming in at 20 cents per mile.” ARK projects 40 cents for Waymo’s newest by 2030, against 60 cents for Tesla’s Model Y today.
Diamandis added: “That’s the prediction, or at least what they’re seeing today.”
On the October call, CFO Vaibhav Taneja said operating costs are still above Tesla’s 30-cent-a-mile target. For now, 20 cents is a forecast.
Tesla’s Texas line can already build Cybercabs faster than it can put them into service. Tesla runs Robotaxi in six cities; Waymo, by Prof G Markets’ Dan Chiolan’s count, runs paid rides in 15. Regulators also want answers on how Tesla self-certified a car with no steering wheel or pedals.
Investors Have Already Paid for the Cybercab
Tesla traded at 161x forward earnings on Nov. 5, above its three-year average of 137x but below its 243x peak in December 2025.
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $3.24 in 2028, still below the $4.07 Tesla earned in 2022. Investors are paying for Robotaxi profits the estimates don’t show. And the car business is losing ground: Gary Black of The Future Fund notes Tesla’s US EV share fell from 80% in 2020 to 52%.
The Dates Line Up for Tesla
In all fairness, I like the move. At 161x forward earnings, though, I’d want Robotaxi revenue in the results before paying up.
At least the dates match. Musk expects Robotaxi to show in results from the second quarter of 2027 and turn significant in the second half, right as the Cybertruck winds down. Next up: the fourth-quarter report in late January, with 2027 spending plans.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
