Key Takeaways
- Marvell rose 4% today as chip stocks, AMD and NVIDIA among them, bounced back from Thursday’s election selloff.
- The bounce undoes only the election part of Marvell’s slide: its all-stock Lumentum deal still weighs on the stock.
- Analysts were raising Marvell’s earnings estimates right up to the deal.
- Marvell’s earnings report in early December is the next test.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up 4% today as chip stocks bounce back from their post-election selloff. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) are bouncing too.
But Marvell needs more than one good day: the stock has lost about half its value in a month, and only part of that was the election. The rest traces back to its $115 billion all-stock deal for Lumentum Holdings (LITE), announced on Nov. 2.
A sector-wide relief rally
Thursday’s selling came on worries that Democrats could slow the data center buildout. Marvell sank another 14%, and AMD fell 17%.
AMD’s bigger bounce, up 10%, makes sense: nothing else hangs over it. On Tuesday it reported third-quarter revenue up 45% to $13.4 billion and guided for about $17 billion in the fourth quarter.
NVIDIA, up 5%, gives the next read on the buildout when it reports on Nov. 17. Marvell shareholders care twice over: NVIDIA sells into the same hyperscaler budgets, and it bought $2 billion of Marvell preferred stock in March.
Lumentum is still the overhang
Lumentum holders get 4.5 Marvell shares for each of theirs, worth about $1,132 at announcement. That value moves with Marvell’s stock, so even after today’s bounce it’s worth only a bit more than half that.
The deal also adds about half to Marvell’s share count, though the companies say it’ll add to adjusted EPS in year one. I suspect investors want to see that first.
TIKR tracks 44 analysts on Marvell. How many say “Buy”?
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The business kept climbing
Analysts expect normalized EPS to climb from $2.84 in fiscal 2026 (the year ended January 2026) to $12.67 in fiscal 2029:
And they were raising those numbers right up to the deal: fiscal 2028’s rose to $7.36 from $6.24 in the 90 days to Nov. 2.
The stock traded at 30x forward earnings that day, under its five-year average of 33x:
At today’s price, it’s even lower.
December is the test
Marvell set the date for its third-quarter report today, and it’s due in early December. It has already said revenue will land within 2% of its $3.15 billion guidance midpoint, so listen for what customers plan after the election.
Bottom line: today’s bounce is the sector shaking off a scare. Marvell’s own discount comes from a deal that isn’t expected to close until the first half of 2028, and I don’t see it lifting soon. Of course, if Democrats move to slow data center construction, the election selloff could come right back.
So what is Marvell stock actually worth?
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