Key Takeaways
- Marvell Technology fell another 14% today in the post-election AI selloff.
- Marvell is paying for its pending optical deal in stock, so each dollar its shares lose takes $4.50 off the offer per share.
- Analysts expect Marvell’s normalized EPS to more than double by the year ending January 2028.
- Marvell’s third-quarter report in early December is the next test.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down another 14% today, after it fell 7% on Wednesday, as the post-election AI selloff ran into a second day.
Democrats, who back tighter AI rules, won both the House and the Senate.
Lumentum holders take the hit
On Monday, Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum for 4.5 Marvell shares per Lumentum share. So each dollar Marvell’s stock loses takes $4.50 off the offer. At Monday’s close, the offer was worth about $771. After two more days of selling, it’s well under $700, below where Lumentum traded before the talks were reported.
The deal isn’t expected to close until the first half of 2028.
Investors are selling optical networking as a group, too: Ciena (CIEN) is down 14%. Its revenue rose 37% to $1.67 billion in its quarter ended Aug. 1, and its December report will show whether cloud providers keep ordering after the election.
TIKR tracks 44 analysts on Marvell. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Marvell, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Marvell’s Analyst Ratings
Marvell’s plan hasn’t changed
Analysts expect normalized EPS to climb from $2.84 in the year ended January 2026 to $7.36 in the year ending January 2028:
Marvell traded at 30x forward earnings at Monday’s close, below its five-year average of 33x, and today’s drop takes it lower still:
Politics is now part of the AI trade
Management’s fiscal 2031 plan assumes data-center capital spending grows about 35% a year through 2030, and a Congress that wants tighter AI rules could slow that. But for the next two years, management says it already has the demand and the supply.
The way I see it, investors are pricing in a political hit years before it could reach Marvell’s numbers. At under 30x forward earnings, the stock looks like a buy. Lumentum holders are in the tougher spot.
Of course, a soft fourth-quarter guide in early December would hand the bears a business case to go with the political one.
So what is Marvell stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
