Key Takeaways
- Grok Bot’s daily users rose from under 100,000 in early September to over 600,000 by Oct. 26, and Elon Musk notes that the AI agent has no free tier.
- Grok Bot gives SpaceX a paid AI product on top of the compute it rents out. But its subscriptions are small next to the $48.9 billion of revenue analysts expect from SpaceX this year.
- The bigger payoff is the agentic demand Musk describes. That demand fills the data centers SpaceX is spending up to $40 billion a quarter to build.
- Fourth-quarter results early next year will show whether December revenue reached SpaceX’s $100 billion annualized goal.
SpaceX (SPCX) has slid back toward $140 this week, about a third below its June record close. Elon Musk would rather investors look at a different chart.
Grok Bot, SpaceX’s AI agent, has grown its daily users for 16 straight days, its longest streak since launch, according to the X account XFreeze. Daily users went from under 100,000 in early September to over 600,000 by Oct. 26.
And as Musk didn’t hesitate to remind us: Grok Bot “has no free tier.”
So apart from people on a free trial, every one of those users is paying.
Five days earlier, Musk had gone further. X user Aaron Burnett argued that a slowdown in agentic demand was “the only legitimate argument” against SpaceX’s guidance. Musk replied: “Agentic demand is growing faster than I’ve ever seen anything grow.”
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A paid product on top of the rentals
So far, SpaceX’s AI money has mostly come from renting out compute. Its Super Intelligence segment brought in $7.56 billion of the company’s $14.6 billion of third-quarter revenue, mostly from cloud deals with other AI companies.
Grok Bot is paid for by the people who use it. Since Oct. 12, new customers get it through The X Subscription, which starts at $30 a month for Premium, with Super at $100 and Ultra at $200. SpaceX has already shown it can sell software: Cursor, which it bought in August, brought in $608 million of revenue from Aug. 14 to Sept. 30.
The people using Grok Bot are fans, too. Atreides Management’s Gavin Baker said on Tuesday’s episode of TBPN that “GrokBot is the most impactful AI product to me and to the firm that we’ve had yet.” He said he’s running about 17 of them and thinks of a new one to add every day.
Small potatoes, for now
Of course, 600,000 users is a small base. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg said on its Oct. 21 earnings call that more than 10 million people in the US and Canada have set up a Muse agent, about six weeks after it launched.
Even if every Grok Bot daily user paid the $30 entry price, that would come to only about $200 million a year. Analysts expect SpaceX to bring in $48.9 billion of revenue this year, and far more after that:
That’s $180 billion in 2027 and $336 billion in 2028. Grok Bot’s subscriptions barely register against numbers that size, and this week’s posts aren’t a reason to raise them.
The real prize is the compute
Musk’s reply was about agentic demand in general, though, and that’s what SpaceX’s guidance rests on. Every agent runs on compute, whoever makes it. Baker mentioned Claude Code, and Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for compute under a contract that runs through May 2029.
Management says that demand shows up in pricing. On the third-quarter call, the CFO said rates ran “slightly above the high end” of a $30-to-$50-per-watt range. Musk said renewals are coming in “at higher dollars per watt.”
That’s the bet behind SpaceX’s capital spending, which climbed from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $20.9 billion in 2025:
And that was before this year’s buildout. SpaceX spent $19.6 billion in the third quarter alone and expects to spend $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth.
Grok Bot is proof of the demand
Musk’s claim holds up in Grok Bot’s numbers. The subscription revenue won’t matter for a while, but people are paying for agents and running more of them every day. That demand fills SpaceX’s data centers whoever’s agent wins.
My take: The demand behind this buildout looks real, and after this week’s slide, SpaceX trades at about 51x forward earnings, down from about 97x at the end of September.
Of course, rental demand can turn fast: either side can leave the Anthropic contract on 90 days’ notice. Fourth-quarter results early next year will show whether December revenue hit SpaceX’s $100 billion annualized goal.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
