Key Takeaways
- Marvell Technology stock soared 23% in a week, and Lumentum, which Marvell agreed to buy, rose almost as much.
- CoreWeave’s beat-and-raise revived the AI trade, though Lumentum still trades below the deal’s value.
- Marvell trades below its five-year average forward P/E, on estimates analysts raised right up to the deal.
- It’s a stock worth adding to slowly before the Dec. 1 report.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up 23% in the past week, and Lumentum (LITE), which it agreed to buy on Nov. 2, is up 23%. Neither had news of its own: the AI chip trade came back, with a push from CoreWeave (CRWV).
CoreWeave beat third-quarter forecasts on Nov. 10, raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0 billion to $13.3 billion, and lifted the low end of its capital spending guide to $37 billion. Its stock is up 30% over the week. Marvell’s plan assumes data center capital spending grows about 35% a year through 2030, so that’s welcome news.
Marvell had the most to win back
Chip stocks sold off on Nov. 4 and 5 after Democrats swept Congress. On Nov. 9, Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, took up Marvell: “People feel it’s a broken segment and a broken stock. It’s not, though.” Even so, Marvell is down 38% in a month and 48% below its June 4 closing high, much of it on the Lumentum deal.
Lumentum holders get a raise every time Marvell climbs
Lumentum holders get a fixed 4.5 Marvell shares each, and the deal adds about 49% to Marvell’s share count. The offer shrank with Marvell’s fall, to about $740 at the Nov. 12 close, and every rally lifts it again. Lumentum closed at $624.65, about 16% below that, partly because the deal isn’t due to close until the first half of 2028, after regulatory reviews that include China’s. And Lumentum’s business is growing fast: fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 136.5% to $1.26 billion.
TIKR tracks 43 analysts on Marvell. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Marvell, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Marvell’s Analyst Ratings
Still cheaper than usual
Analysts kept raising Marvell’s numbers right up to the deal, and consensus has normalized EPS reaching $12.68 in fiscal 2029, more than four times fiscal 2026’s $2.84.
Marvell trades at about 30x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 33x.
The biggest risk is NVIDIA, which invested $2 billion in Marvell in March. Jensen Huang backed the Lumentum deal before it was announced, Bloomberg reported, but NVIDIA announced his resignation as CEO on Nov. 12, and Marvell fell 2.6% that day. TD Cowen and BofA also downgraded Marvell after the deal.
Cramer’s own plan is a slow one. In his Nov. 9 lightning round, he said that “if you want to buy 100 shares, I would buy 25, and then I would literally wait until $100 to buy 25.”
With preliminary third-quarter revenue already in line with the $3.15 billion guide, the Dec. 1 report’s fourth-quarter guidance and the roughly $20 billion fiscal 2028 outlook matter more.
So what is Marvell stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Marvell could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
