Key Takeaways:
- Marvell is executing a comprehensive AI infrastructure strategy across custom XPU silicon, electro-optics interconnect, and scale-up networking solutions while maintaining strong operational discipline.
- Marvell stock could reasonably reach $115/share by January 2028, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 72% from today’s price of $67/share, with an annualized return of 25% over the next 2.4 years.
Marvell (MRVL) is establishing new benchmarks in AI infrastructure through strategic platform expansion that addresses emerging custom silicon requirements, comprehensive connectivity solutions, and next-generation networking architectures across hyperscale data centers.
Marvell serves enterprise customers globally through its comprehensive data center infrastructure platform, which spans custom XPU and XPU-attached silicon, electro-optic interconnect solutions, and advanced networking technologies.
Core offerings include custom ASIC design and manufacturing, DSP-based optical transceivers, data center interconnect solutions, and emerging scale-up networking platforms delivered through cutting-edge process technologies and advanced packaging capabilities.
The semiconductor leader delivered record Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $2 billion, representing a 58% year-over-year growth, with data center revenue accounting for 74% of the company’s total revenue at $1.49 billion.
Marvell demonstrates exceptional execution across platform expansion initiatives under the leadership of CEO Matt Murphy and newly promoted executives Chris Koopmans and Sandeep Bharathi.
MRVL stock went public in 2000 and has delivered substantial long-term returns through multiple technology cycles and market transformations.
Here’s why Marvell stock could deliver exceptional returns through 2028 as it capitalizes on AI infrastructure opportunities while scaling its custom silicon and connectivity platform across global hyperscale customers.
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What the Model Says for MRVL Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Marvell stock using valuation assumptions based on its AI infrastructure capabilities and market leadership opportunities across custom silicon and advanced connectivity solutions.
Analysts recognize an opportunity ahead for Marvell stock, given its proven track record of execution, leadership in technology differentiation, and systematic approach to building competitive advantages.
Marvell’s diversified platform strategy provides multiple growth vectors while operational excellence validates that focused innovation execution can drive market expansion and customer adoption in the rapidly evolving data center landscape.
Based on analyst estimates of 25% annual revenue growth, 36% operating margins, and a normalized P/E valuation multiple of 22x, the model projects Marvell stock could rise from $67/share to $115/share.
That would be a 72% total return, or a 25% annualized return over the next 2.4 years.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MRVL stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 25%
Marvell delivered an outstanding Q2 performance with 58% revenue growth and strong momentum across all key growth drivers, including custom silicon, electro-optics, and recovering enterprise/carrier markets.
Growth drivers include 18-plus XPU and XPU-attached design wins ramping up over the next 18-24 months, the electro-optics business maintaining strong demand with next-generation 1.6T and 3.2T capabilities, and enterprise networking/carrier infrastructure recovery reaching a $1.7 billion annualized run rate.
We used a 25% forecast, reflecting Marvell’s proven ability to execute on massive AI infrastructure opportunities while maintaining operational leverage and technology leadership.
2. Operating Margins: 36%
Marvell achieved a Q2 operating margin of 35% while investing heavily in AI infrastructure capabilities and developing its R&D platform.
The company demonstrated significant operating leverage with 870 basis points of year-over-year expansion.
Marvell expects sustainable margin expansion through operational leverage, NRE contra-OpEx benefits from customer investments, and efficiency improvements as custom programs scale and advanced technology platforms mature.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 22x
Marvell stock trades at premium multiples reflecting its exceptional growth profile, market leadership position, and technology innovation capabilities across expanding AI infrastructure markets.
We employ reasonable valuation levels, considering Marvell’s market positioning, execution capabilities, and systematic approach to building sustainable competitive advantages through technology differentiation and deep customer relationships for mission-critical AI applications.
Long-term competitive advantages from proprietary IP portfolio, advanced process technology leadership, and comprehensive customer partnerships should support solid valuations as the company capitalizes on AI infrastructure expansion and scales its platform across multiple growth vectors.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for MRVL stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on AI infrastructure execution and semiconductor market conditions: (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Slower custom silicon ramps and competitive pressure → 8% annual returns
- Mid Case: Successful platform expansion and market leadership → 15% annual returns
- High Case: Strong AI infrastructure momentum and share gains → 21% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Marvell stock offers attractive returns supported by technology differentiation and proven ability to execute complex custom programs while maintaining operational excellence across diverse market conditions.
The upside scenario for MRVL stock could deliver exceptional performance if it successfully captures the expanding AI infrastructure market while maximizing custom silicon opportunities and next-generation connectivity platform adoption.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
