Key Takeaways for Lululemon Athletica Stock as of September 2026
- Guidance Whiff: Lululemon stock sank 17% on Friday after a second straight full-year guidance cut and a Q2 revenue miss sent shares to an eight-year low near $98 before they closed at $101.
- Street Skepticism: Wall Street’s current split sits at 1 buy, 29 holds, 1 underperform and 3 sells among the 34 analysts TIKR tracks, with a mean target of $125 sitting 24% above the current price.
- Model Upside: TIKR values LULU stock at $134, a 33% total return by 2031.
- New Boss, Old Problems: The selloff lands four days before incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill’s September 8 start date, with Lululemon stock now down 52% for the year and trading near its May 2018 levels.
Curious whether Wall Street’s $125 target still holds up after a 52% yearly slide? Dig into LULU’s full analyst history on TIKR for free →
Why Lululemon Stock Crashed 17% on a Second Guidance Cut
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) stock dropped 17% on Friday, September 4, closing at $101 after tumbling as low as $98 intraday, an eight-year low, following a second-quarter earnings report that missed revenue estimates and came bundled with the company’s second full-year guidance cut in three months.
The numbers behind the drop were ugly across the board. Revenue fell 4% year over year to $2.42 billion, short of the $2.46 billion analysts expected, while comparable sales sank 9%. Diluted earnings per share came in at $2.92, down from $3.10 a year earlier, even with a $134.5 million tariff refund padding the results. Americas, still Lululemon’s largest market, posted an 8% revenue decline and a 12% drop in comparable sales.
Management responded by cutting guidance again. Lululemon now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to fall 5% to 7%, versus a prior forecast of flat to down 1%, and full-year earnings per share of $9.48 to $9.73, down from $10.95 to $11.15. Interim Co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank told analysts on the Q2 2027 earnings call that the company had “expected a better response” to its product actions and acknowledged there is “significant work ahead.” That admission, more than the miss itself, is what sent Lululemon stock reeling.
Leggings, the category that built the brand, are the clearest sign of the problem. Sales of the pants fell roughly 20% in the quarter as shoppers shifted toward looser, away-from-body silhouettes that Lululemon has been slower to stock. The retailer’s share of the athleisure market shrank 10 percentage points to 43.9% over the past year, while newer rivals Alo and Vuori gained 5.9 and 2.2 points, respectively. Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel summed up the tension bluntly: “Lulu is a powerful brand but an overstretched one.” Store square footage grew 11% in the quarter, so fixed costs kept climbing even as sales shrank.
China, usually the growth engine, did not help this time either. Revenue there rose just 4% on a reported basis and fell 2% in constant currency, well short of plan, after a marketing campaign on the Great Wall featuring a Japanese taiko drum drew backlash on Chinese social media and a lighter Tmall 618 shopping event sapped e-commerce sales.
All of this lands four days before incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill, a longtime Nike executive, takes over on September 8. She inherits a brand that has lost pricing power in its core category, a cost base still sized for growth, and a Street that has already downgraded its patience. That combination, not the quarter alone, is why Lululemon stock cannot find a floor.
The guidance cut hit leggings and Americas hardest. See the segment-level numbers behind Lululemon’s slide on TIKR for free →
Lululemon Stock: Street Targets Keep Falling but Still Sit Above the Tape
Wall Street remains cautious but not capitulatory on Lululemon stock. Of the 34 analysts TIKR tracks, 1 rates it a buy, 29 rate it a hold, 1 rates it an underperform, and 3 rate it a sell, with the mean price target sitting at $125, 24% above Friday’s close.
A year ago, on August 3, 2025, the mean target stood at $291 against a $193 stock, a 50% premium built on 14 buy ratings and just 3 sells. Every quarter since has chipped away at conviction: buys collapsed from 14 a year ago to just 1 today, holds climbed from 14 to 29, and coverage thinned from 30 estimated targets to 26. Heading into this earnings report, on August 2, the mean target had shrunk to $128 against a $119 stock, just an 8% cushion.
Friday’s crash reopened that gap to 24%, not because analysts turned bullish again but because the stock fell faster than the last round of cuts anticipated.
TIKR Values Lululemon Stock at $134, Pricing a Slow Climb Back
TIKR’s mid-case model values Lululemon stock at $134 by January 2031, implying a 33% total return from the current price of $101, or 7% annualized over the next 4.4 years.
That multiple is actually 12x today, not 11x, and it barely moved through Friday’s crash: LULU traded at 11x back in August, before the print. A forward multiple that stays flat while the stock craters 17% means consensus earnings estimates got cut almost as fast as the share price did, not that the stock got meaningfully cheaper. It’s also well below Lululemon’s own trading history, where TIKR’s NTM P/E has averaged 27x with a range of 9x to 59x, so today’s 12x is statistically depressed but not unprecedented for this name.
That reading lines up with what showed up this week: comparable sales fell 9%, guidance has now been cut twice in three months, and even the Street’s own mean target has been marked down from $291 to $125 over the past year. TIKR’s model effectively sides with the more conservative end of that repricing, betting the incoming O’Neill era stabilizes the business rather than reignites it.
Want to stress-test TIKR’s $134 target and 33% return case on LULU stock yourself? Build your own model on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Lululemon Athletica Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Lululemon Athletica Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Lululemon Athletica Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze LULU stock on TIKR for Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
