Key Takeaways for Kinder Morgan Stock as of July 2026
- Analysts split 9 buy, 2 outperform, 12 hold and 2 no opinion calls on Kinder Morgan stock, and their $35 mean target leaves just 10% upside to the July 10 close of $32.
- TIKR’s mid-case model puts a $41 target on Kinder Morgan stock by December 2030, a 27% total return worth 6% annualized from today’s $32 price.
- Kinder Morgan stock trades below what its $10 billion project backlog should be worth.
- Following an April 22 print that saw EBIT jump 26% and EPS climb 38%, management guided full-year adjusted EBITDA more than 3% above budget, an incremental $250 million tied largely to the Monument pipeline deal and sustained gas demand growth.
Kinder Morgan Stock Rides a 26% EBIT Beat and a $10 Billion Backlog
Kinder Morgan (KMI) operates 78,000 miles of pipeline and 136 terminals that move natural gas, refined products and CO2 across North America. The company posted first-quarter 2026 results on April 22 that beat every internal budget line, with EBIT climbing 26% year over year to $1.44 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 18% to $2.5 billion.
That growth came from every segment topping its own budget, with natural gas leading as Winter Storm Fern and record LNG feed gas deliveries on the Tennessee Gas Pipeline pushed transport volumes up 8% and gathering volumes up 15%.
With net income attributable to KMI reaching $976 million, chief financial officer David Michels addressed the scale of the beat directly on the Q1 earnings call: “These very impressive results reflect strong demand fundamentals across the country, combined with strategically positioned assets and skilled execution by our colleagues to capture the associated opportunities.” That performance pushed full-year guidance more than 3% above budget, worth roughly $250 million of incremental EBITDA.
Beneath the quarterly beat, the bigger driver is the project backlog, which grew to $10.1 billion this quarter with an average in-service date of the first quarter of 2028. Management also closed the $500 million Monument pipeline acquisition in Texas and moved the Western Gateway refined products joint venture with Phillips 66 toward a final investment decision.
Even so, the quarter wasn’t free of friction. The company’s El Paso Natural Gas unit declared multiple force majeure events on its Texas lines, and a Tennessee Gas Pipeline unit reported a natural gas release near Catlettsburg, Kentucky, on July 7 that forced evacuations, though no injuries were reported. Those incidents highlight the operational risk built into a network this large, even as leverage fell to 3.6 times adjusted EBITDA, the lowest since Kinder Morgan’s 2014 consolidation.
Wall Street Splits on Kinder Morgan Stock Even as the Mean Target Climbs to $35
Analysts currently rate Kinder Morgan stock across 9 buy, 2 outperform, 12 hold and 2 no opinion calls, with no sell ratings on the stock. The mean target sits at $35, up from $30 a year ago, and implies about 10% upside from the July 10 close of $32.
Targets have moved higher every quarter since June 2025, tracking the $10.1 billion project backlog and the Monument pipeline acquisition management closed this spring.
Wall Street Models a Kinder Morgan Stock EBIT Dip Before the Backlog Kicks In
Kinder Morgan stock’s EBIT reached $1.44 billion in the quarter ended March 31, 2026, up 26% from a year earlier and the strongest print in the estimate window.
Consensus estimates hold EBIT roughly flat at $1.17 billion through the June and September quarters of fiscal 2026, before turning to $1.29 billion in the December quarter, a 6% decline from the prior year.
That decline extends into fiscal 2027, with EBIT projected at $1.33 billion in the March quarter, down 8% year over year, before narrowing to a 2% decline by June 2027.
Bulls point to the $10.1 billion backlog and the $250 million guidance raise as evidence the dip is a timing issue tied to a Q1 2028 in-service date, while bears note the Street still models three straight quarters of EBIT declines before any of that backlog shows up in the numbers.
TIKR’s $41 Target on Kinder Morgan Stock Holds if the Backlog Lands on Schedule
TIKR’s mid-case model values Kinder Morgan stock at $41 by December 2030, implying a 27% total return from the current price of $32, or 6% annualized over 4.5 years.
That annualized return positions Kinder Morgan stock as a steady, income-weighted holding rather than an aggressive compounder, consistent with a business where 65% of revenue sits under take-or-pay contracts and 26% is fee-based.
The target is reachable if the $10.1 billion backlog delivers on its average Q1 2028 in-service date, the same window that explains why Street estimates show EBIT declining before recovering, and if the Monument and Western Gateway projects convert into the incremental EBITDA management has already guided toward.
Should You Invest in Kinder Morgan, Inc.?
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Pull up Kinder Morgan, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
