Key Stats for Carvana Co. (CVNA)
- 52-Week Range: $54.46 to $97.38
- Current Price: $67.12
- Street Target Price: $92.14
- TIKR Model Target (Mid Case): ~$150
- Market Cap: ~$48B
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $6.43B (up 52% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $672M (margin of 10.4%)
- Q1 2026 Retail Units Sold: 187,393 (up 40% YoY)
- Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.13x
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A Strong Business, a Nervous Market, and Q2 Earnings Around the Corner
Carvana (CVNA) has been one of the more frustrating stocks to own this year. The business keeps hitting records, yet the stock peaked near $97 in January and has spent most of 2026 grinding lower.
The trigger for the sharpest leg down was CarMax’s commentary about elevated reconditioning costs, which investors immediately applied to Carvana’s margins too, even though Carvana’s own cost trajectory has been moving in the opposite direction.
The drawdowns chart captures the year precisely. Carvana sold off hard into March, hitting a maximum drawdown of 41.21% on March 20. It partially recovered through April, getting back to around -12% at one point, but could not hold those levels. Since May, the stock has churned between roughly -25% and -35% below its high, unable to find sustained buying interest.
The current reading of -29.86% reflects a market that hasn’t been willing to pay up for a business that keeps delivering, largely because the multiple was rich going in, and the macro backdrop for used cars remains uncertain. Q2 earnings on July 29 are the next real catalyst in either direction.
See Carvana’s analyst price targets and consensus estimates on TIKR >>>
The Earnings Inflection Is Real, and the Chart Shows It Clearly
What makes Carvana’s setup genuinely interesting is that the EPS story is not a projection. The turnaround already happened.
The EPS chart runs from 2021 through 2030 and tells the whole story at a glance. Carvana lost $2.21 per share in 2022 at the depth of its crisis, when the company was burning cash, the stock had collapsed over 95% from its peak, and bankruptcy speculation was mainstream.
It came back to -$0.59 in 2023, crossed into positive territory at $0.63 in 2024, and more than doubled to $1.69 in 2025. The estimates from 2026 onward show continued growth: around $1.58 this year, stepping up to around $2.16 in 2027, and approaching $3 by the end of the decade.
The Q1 2026 shareholder letter, signed by CEO Ernie Garcia, puts the operational story plainly. For the 9th straight quarter, Carvana was simultaneously the fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer. Retail units grew 40% while the broader industry was roughly flat.
The company moved a car from one owner to the next in under five days in one reported instance, underscoring how tightly the platform’s logistics, reconditioning, and technology capabilities are integrated.
Garcia framed the long-term goal as 3 million cars per year at a 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin, and the infrastructure is already in place to support 1.5 million units annually at current build-out levels.
What the TIKR Valuation Model Says About the Path From Here
For a business growing this fast and this profitably, the valuation model produces a compelling mid-case output, built on assumptions that are neither aggressive nor dismissive of the execution risk.
The mid-case assumes around 16% annual revenue growth and net income margins expanding to around 7%, roughly in line with Q1 2026, which already showed 6.3%.
On those inputs, the model targets around $150 per share, implying total returns of around 124% over the next four and a half years, or roughly 20% annualized. The low case lands around $162 at about 11% per year; the high case reaches around $284 at around 19%.
The historical column is sobering, showing large negative returns across most prior periods, a reminder that Carvana has been a difficult stock to hold through its cycles.
The model is essentially asking whether the current operational momentum is durable enough to close the gap between today’s price and the implied value of the earnings trajectory.
Run your own Carvana valuation on TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
Should You Invest in Carvana Co.?
Carvana is not cheap by conventional measures, and the debt load, while manageable at 1.1x EBITDA, deserves attention given how much leverage the company has carried historically.
But the execution record since 2024 has been genuinely exceptional, and the EPS chart makes the case that this is no longer a turnaround story: it is a growth story with a complicated past.
With Q2 earnings due July 29 and management guiding for all-time records on both units and EBITDA, the next few weeks will go a long way toward answering whether the stock’s -30% drawdown is a buying opportunity or a fair reflection of a premium multiple meeting a more uncertain macro backdrop.
Model Carvana’s bull, base, and bear scenarios yourself (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
