Key Stats for Applied Digital Corporation
- 52-Week Range: $9.02 to $50.73
- Current Price: $32.23
- Street Mean Target: $73.36
- Street Median Target: $79.00
- Market Cap: ~$9B
- Q3 FY26 Revenue: $126.6M (up 139% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 FY26): $44.1M
- Contracted Capacity: 600 MW across HPC campuses
- Net Debt: ~$1.1B LTM
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The Stock Has Spent Most of 2026 in a Drawdown. The Business Hasn’t Skipped a Beat
Applied Digital (APLD) has been a volatile ride even by AI infrastructure standards. The stock ran from $9 at its 52-week low all the way above $50 as investors got excited about its pivot from crypto hosting to large-scale AI data centers.
Then reality set in, the way it tends to with pre-profitability infrastructure plays, and Applied Digital has been pulling back for most of the year.
The drawdowns chart tells the full story. Applied Digital hit a maximum drawdown of 50.31% in late March, when an AI sentiment reset and concerns about the capital structure knocked the stock roughly in half from its prior peak.
It clawed back to near-zero drawdown by mid-May, then sold off again, and as of early July sits at -36.68% from its high. Whether that’s a warning sign or an entry point depends on one thing: whether you believe the construction milestones will keep arriving on schedule.
The operational record so far says yes. Applied Digital just brought Phase 1 of Building 2 at Polaris Forge 1 online, delivering 75 MW of live AI capacity and lifting the campus total to 175 MW. CEO Wes Cummins has been consistent about what the company is measured on, turning contracted power into live, operational capacity on time. So far, they keep doing it.
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Revenue Is Growing at a Pace That Almost Doesn’t Fit on the Chart
Applied Digital generated $126.6 million in revenue in its fiscal third quarter, up 139% from the same period a year earlier. When you zoom out further, the numbers get harder to contextualize in traditional terms.
The revenue chart shows what happened and what the Street expects next. From FY22 through FY25, Applied Digital generated modest revenue, primarily by operating as a crypto data center host. Then the HPC hosting business came online, and the chart went essentially vertical.
Revenue came in around $216 million for FY25. Consensus estimates for FY26 sit around $420 million, roughly doubling year over year, with the ramp continuing to around $1.6 billion by FY28 and approaching $4.7 billion by FY30.
The model behind that ramp is straightforward. Applied Digital builds high-density, liquid-cooled data centers and leases them to hyperscalers on 15 to 30-year contracts.
The first 100 MW building at Polaris Forge 1 represents roughly one-sixth of the company’s contracted capacity. Polaris Forge 2 (200 MW, leased to an investment-grade hyperscaler), Delta Forge 2 (210 MW, newly signed), and additional campuses are coming online over the next few years. Each building adds another long-duration revenue stream.
Management’s stated goal is $1 billion in net operating income within five years, and the revenue chart shows the path analysts believe will get them there.
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Analysts Are Overwhelmingly Bullish, and the Targets Have Been Moving Up All Year
With deeply negative GAAP net income driven by stock-based compensation, construction costs, and accounting items tied to the Cloud Services business spin-off, a traditional valuation model doesn’t produce a reliable output for Applied Digital at this stage. The Street Targets table gives a more grounded read on where analysts think the stock belongs.
A year ago, the mean analyst target was around $10.50, roughly in line with the stock trading at $6.83. Since then, targets have moved up sharply alongside the business. As of July 8, the mean target sits at around $73, and the median is $79, against a stock price of $31.44.
The ratio of mean target to current price is 233%, unusually wide even by small-cap AI standards. The most cautious analyst on the Street still sees around 25% upside from here. There are 9 buys and 2 outperforms, and no holds or sells.
The gap between mean and median is worth noting. The mean is being pulled down by a lower outlier or two, while the $79 median reflects where most of the analyst community is actually clustered. Either way, both figures point to a stock trading at a steep discount to fundamental estimates.
The gap exists because GAAP losses are large, the capital structure is complex, and most of the revenue ramp is still ahead and not yet reflected in the reported numbers. Investors with a two to three-year view are working from a very different set of assumptions than those focused on today’s income statement.
Should You Invest in Applied Digital Corporation?
Applied Digital is not a stock for investors who need clean earnings and a simple story. The GAAP net loss is real, the debt load is substantial, and the path to $1 billion in NOI requires a construction schedule that must execute flawlessly across multiple campuses and years. Those are legitimate risks, and the drawdown chart reflects that the market prices them seriously.
What the bull case comes down to is this: Applied Digital has one of the most valuable things in AI infrastructure right now, operational, on-time, liquid-cooled capacity backed by long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.
The company is building a durable annuity stream in a market where hyperscalers are spending nearly $700 billion annually and running out of high-quality places to put it. If the milestones keep arriving and the capital structure continues to improve, $32 looks like a very different price than the Street targets reflect.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
