Key Takeaways for FedEx Stock as of July 2026
- Twenty-seven analysts cover FedEx stock, with 19 rating it a buy or outperform against a $351 mean target.
- TIKR’s mid-case model targets $362 for FedEx stock by December 2030, implying a 16% total return and a 3% annualized rate over the next 4.5 years.
- FedEx stock looks undervalued as normalized EPS reaccelerates to $4.47 by December, up 17%.
- July 1 brought a $1.4 billion sale of FedEx Supply Chain to CMA CGM, sharpening the delivery focus.
FedEx Beats Q4 Estimates but Margin Slide Rattles FedEx Stock
FedEx Corporation (FDX), the Memphis-based delivery network that moves nearly 18 million packages a day, posted fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $25 billion on June 23, up 12.6% from a year earlier and ahead of the $24.04 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings per share reached $6.31, topping the $5.96 consensus estimate compiled by LSEG. FedEx stock still fell as much as 7% in premarket trading the next morning.
The drop traced to margins, not growth. Operating margin in the Federal Express segment slipped to 7.7% from 8.4% a year earlier as employee compensation, outsourced transportation, and fuel costs climbed faster than revenue. CEO Raj Subramaniam addressed the fuel surcharge’s effect on margin directly on the Q4 2026 earnings call. “If we had taken the fuel surcharge out, our margin would have been up year over year rather than down year over year.”
J.P. Morgan called the setup an overhang investors would need time to digest, while Morgan Stanley and Wolfe Research staked out opposite views on where the stock’s target price belongs.
The margin story arrived alongside a bigger structural shift. FedEx is moving its fiscal year end to December 31 from May 31, and it introduced calendar 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $16.90 to $18.10 per share, a range implying 20% growth through the June-to-December transition period. Normalized EPS on a continuing-operations basis came in at $3.27 for the quarter ended June 30, with estimates climbing to $6.00 by September and $4.47 by December.
That reset came days after FedEx completed the June 1 spinoff of FedEx Freight and followed through with a $1.4 billion sale of FedEx Supply Chain to CMA CGM on July 1. The Supply Chain deal, still expected to close later this year, narrows FedEx’s focus to its core air-and-ground network and adds cash toward a leverage-neutral balance sheet after the Freight dividend, alongside a 5% dividend increase and a plan to repurchase up to $1 billion in shares this year.
Wall Street Still Backs FedEx Stock Despite a $53 Target Cut
Twenty-seven analysts cover FedEx stock, and the consensus leans bullish with 16 buy and 3 outperform ratings against 6 holds, 1 underperform, and 1 sell. The mean price target sits at $351, roughly 13% above FedEx stock’s July 9 close of $311, though that mean has fallen from $404 in May after the fiscal fourth-quarter margin miss.
Morgan Stanley cut its target to $160 from $230 in early June, citing structural headwinds from Amazon’s expansion into freight logistics. Wolfe Research held an outperform rating with a $378 target, arguing fuel tailwinds could make the guidance conservative.
Wall Street Expects FedEx Stock’s Normalized EPS to Snap Back to $6 This Fall
Normalized EPS came in at $3.27 for the quarter ended June 30, down 28% from a year earlier on the new continuing-operations basis. The Street expects a sharp rebound to $6.00 for the September quarter, essentially flat against last year’s comparable figure, before settling to $4.47 in December, up 17% year over year.
Looking further out, normalized EPS is projected at $5.31 for the March 2027 quarter and $4.06 by June 2027, up 24% from a year earlier. That trajectory tracks the 20% transition-year growth management guided to on the earnings call.
The threshold that confirms the thesis is the September print. A number at or near $6.00 would validate the reacceleration, while a print below $5.50 would hand the bears at Morgan Stanley the evidence they are looking for.
TIKR’s $362 Target on FedEx Stock Holds if Normalized EPS Reaccelerates as Guided
TIKR’s mid-case model values FedEx stock at $362 by December 2030, implying a 16% total return and a 3% annualized rate from the current price of $311.
That annualized return sits below what growth-oriented investors typically expect from a stock trading near the middle of its 52-week range between $216 and $414, positioning FedEx stock closer to a value name than a growth compounder.
The target becomes reachable if the normalized EPS path from $3.27 in June to $6.00 in September and $4.47 in December holds, validating the 20% transition-year growth management has guided to. A stumble in that sequence, particularly a soft September print, would leave the model’s already modest annualized return looking optimistic rather than conservative.
The two divestitures this year, the Freight spinoff and the Supply Chain sale, both trade near-term complexity for a simpler earnings base that the normalized EPS estimates are already starting to reflect.
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Should You Invest in FedEx Corporation?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
