Key Stats for Johnson & Johnson Stock
- Current Price: $256.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$332
- Street Target: ~$279
- Potential Total Return: ~30%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
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What Happened?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) closed at $256.03 on October 2, 2026, down 5.85% from its September 28 close of $271.95. The decline started on September 29. That day, BofA raised its price target to $278 while warning that third-quarter EPS could trail the Street; J&J itself has not tied the move to any company news.
Shares are still up 23.7% in 2026. Third-quarter results arrive before the market opens on October 13, posted to J&J’s investor relations materials. It will be the first report since CFO Joseph Wolk argued that a 2027 patent cliff bigger than STELARA’s first-year hit need not slow reported growth.
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Wolk Says a $4 Billion Patent Cliff Won’t Slow 2027
At Deutsche Bank’s healthcare summit on September 17, Wolk said of 2027, “There’s about $4 billion to $4.5 billion of products that are losing exclusivity, right?” He sized XARELTO at about $2 billion, the pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) franchise at about $1.5 billion, and SIMPONI and STELARA at another $1 billion. He then added, “Yet nobody is focusing on that, right?”
He said 2027 should still deliver “equivalent reported growth,” even without the 53rd week of sales that he put at “1.5 to 2 points worth of growth” in 2026. TIKR’s consensus sits close to that view: 2027 revenue is projected at around $109 billion, up about 7%, after roughly 8% in 2026.
ICOTYDE carries much of that load. Wolk said the oral psoriasis drug had 17,000 patients after five months on the market, with “coverage by all the big 3 providers now.” He added, “I would think that where the analysts are, we should see a number north of that.” Two-year data from the Phase 3 ICONIC-TOTAL study, released October 2, showed 70% of ICOTYDE-treated patients with clear or almost clear skin at Week 112.
Abiomed is the soft spot. Wolk acknowledged field actions and a U.K. utilization study weighing on the business, and said “this time next year, we’re in a much better position.” That suggests the unit may offer MedTech little help in the third quarter.
Third-Quarter EPS Will Look Weaker Than the Business
On July 29, J&J cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.96 to $11.11 from $11.60 to $11.75. It cited about $0.64 per share of dilution from the Firefly Bio acquisition and a Sail Biomedicines partnership.
Firefly alone carries an in-process R&D charge of about $1 billion in the third quarter. The deals could also reduce 2027 adjusted EPS by about $1.36. Of that, $1.28 depends on Sail hitting milestones and J&J exercising its option.
TIKR’s consensus calls for normalized EPS of about $2.48, down roughly 11% from $2.80 a year earlier, on sales of around $25.3 billion. Estimates differ widely: BofA expects $2.53, which it says sits about 12% below the Street figure it tracks. Whether the print counts as a miss depends on the estimate used.
Revenue is the cleaner read. J&J has beaten Street sales estimates in each of the last five quarters by 1.00% to 3.86%. That record supports a P/E ratio of about 23 times NTM earnings. That is above Merck (MRK) at about 17 and Pfizer (PFE) at about 10, but below Eli Lilly (LLY) at about 27.
Separately, Bloomberg reported on September 11 that Apollo was in talks to buy the DePuy Synthes orthopaedics unit for close to $20 billion. No agreement had been announced as of early October.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $256.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$332
- Potential Total Return: ~30%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
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The mid case is the model’s summary-panel scenario, realized December 31, 2030, and sits about 19% above the ~$279 Street mean. The model’s forecast table runs from 2025 to 2035 rather than ending at the 2030 horizon. It shows these mid-case inputs:
- Revenue Growth: ~7% / year
- Net Income Margin: ~29%
- P/E Change: ~-1% / year
The main risk is the multiple: a weak 2027 outlook that pulls it toward Merck’s could lower the stock even as earnings grow. Upside comes from ICOTYDE outrunning analyst estimates, as Wolk expects.
Conclusion
Sales at or above the roughly $25.3 billion consensus, with reported sales guidance still centered near $101.1 billion or higher, would keep Wolk’s 2027 math credible ahead of the December 8 Investor Day. A sales miss or a guidance cut would leave a stock at about 23 times forward earnings, defending its premium with a shrinking quarterly EPS number.
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So what is Johnson & Johnson stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
