Key Takeaways
- Joby Aviation stock fell 24% in the past month through Tuesday’s close, mostly after a Barclays downgrade and a hot inflation report.
- Barclays cut Joby to Underweight with a $4 target, doubting it can build aircraft fast enough to win a big share, and started Archer Aviation at Overweight the same day.
- Joby’s own CFO says demand could absorb all its production, which puts the limit on its small production line.
- Joby had $2.3 billion of cash and short-term investments at June 30, enough for now, and its third-quarter deliveries are the next test.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock is down 24% in the past month (through Tuesday’s close), while the S&P 500 rose 1%.
Blame one question: can Joby build planes fast enough?
Barclays thinks the factory is the problem
After the Oct. 8 close, Barclays took over coverage, cut Joby to Underweight and lowered its target to $4 from $6. Its case: the air-taxi market won’t be winner-take-all, and Joby can’t build fast enough to take a big share. Barclays started Archer Aviation (ACHR) at Overweight the same day.
Joby fell 5.4% on Oct. 9 as Archer rose, and 5.5% on Oct. 12 as Goldman Sachs trimmed its target to $7 from $8. A hot inflation report on Oct. 14 then sent Treasury yields up and Joby down 6.9%, its worst day of the month.
Management puts the limit in the same place
Joby’s own management sees the same bottleneck. On the Aug. 5 call, CFO Rodrigo Brumana said Texas, Florida and New York, its markets in the federal air-taxi pilot program, “could absorb the whole production for quite some time.”
The production line is small: four aircraft added in the second quarter, and at least two due off it in the second half. Blade, Joby’s premium flight business, brought in $36.2 million of the company’s $38.64 million in second-quarter revenue.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Joby Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Joby Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Joby Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
The cash holds, for now
Joby ended 2025 with $1.41 billion in cash and short-term investments…
…and had $2.3 billion by June 30. But its quarterly burn has nearly doubled in a year to about $200 million. Add the second half’s guided burn to the $450 million Resonant Sciences deal and a $116.9 million trade-secret verdict (Joby is fighting it), and nearly $1 billion is spoken for. Toyota’s $250 million investment is expected around year-end.
That’s enough for now, though a company burning this much before launch could sell stock at any time.
Show me the planes
Third-quarter results come in early November: watch whether both second-half aircraft arrive and the burn holds near $200 million.
The slide has taken Joby to 38x forward sales, a one-year low against a 94x average…
…but that’s still steep for revenue that’s mostly Blade’s.
My take: the Street’s $10 consensus target, more than double Tuesday’s close, assumes a ramp Joby hasn’t shown. I’d wait for third-quarter deliveries before buying. If both aircraft arrive on time, Barclays’ argument gets a lot weaker.
So what is Joby Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
