Key Takeaways
- IonQ shares jumped 23.4% on Friday after third-quarter revenue rose 336% to $173.8 million, well above the $141.9 million consensus.
- IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $505 million to $515 million, and all 2027 Superion 256 capacity is already sold out.
- The $564 million net profit came from a non-cash warrant gain, while the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $133.6 million.
- Lock-ups on certain shares, warrants and options end November 14, the first test of whether the rally can absorb new supply.
IonQ (IONQ) gave the market the beat it wanted, and the stock answered with a 23.4% jump on Friday to $33.
Third-quarter revenue reached $173.8 million, up 336% and $32 million above consensus. Guidance went up for the third time this year.
The rally spread fast. Other listed quantum stocks rose 18% to 19% the same day.
Strip out the accounting noise, though, and IonQ lost more money running the business than it did a year ago. Even after Friday, the stock is still 56% below its 52-week high.
Two businesses, one big beat
The quarter now has two engines:
- IonQ Platform revenue of $90.3 million, up 127% on global Tempo deployments
- SkyWater foundry revenue of $83.5 million, from the chipmaker IonQ closed on this year
- Remaining performance obligations of $1.2 billion
That foundry line explains much of the 336% headline. The platform’s 127% growth is the cleaner read on quantum demand, and it’s still very strong.
Here’s how sharp the step-up has been…
Revenue has roughly tripled in two quarters, with the SkyWater consolidation doing a big share of the lifting.
The order book runs into 2028
New business is what makes the guidance credible. IonQ’s own segment backlog rose from $485 million to $689 million on roughly $290 million of new contracts.
All Superion 256 capacity for 2027 is sold out, with orders filling into 2028. Management plans several more Tempo systems next year to expand cloud capacity.
Full-year revenue guidance now sits at $505 million to $515 million, up from $450 million to $460 million. The company expects quantum computing revenue to more than double this year.
Will the estimates keep chasing the guidance?
At 16.5x forward sales, the market already prices in a lot of that growth.
TIKR tracks 14 analysts on IonQ. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IonQ, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IonQ’s Analyst Ratings
Profit on paper, losses in practice
The $564 million net income, or $1.42 a share, was almost entirely an $896 million non-cash gain on warrants. A $141.7 million tax benefit tied to SkyWater added more.
The operating picture runs the other way. The adjusted EBITDA loss reached $133.6 million, up from $48.9 million a year earlier, and integration costs added about $40 million.
Then there’s the share count. IonQ paid for Elisity with up to $1.3 billion of stock, closed a $2 billion stock and warrant offering in October, and issued shares for SkyWater too.
That dilution is the price of a $3.7 billion pro forma cash pile.
My take: The demand signals are real, and a sold-out 2027 is rare in this industry. But IonQ is buying growth with stock and cash at the same time, and the losses are widening faster than the core platform is growing. At $33, I’d want proof that the EBITDA loss shrinks this quarter, as management expects.
The first checkpoint is November 14, when lock-ups on certain shares, warrants and options expire. After that, the February 24 report will show whether the $505 million to $515 million guide holds.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
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