Key Takeaways
- IonQ shares fell 3% today, alongside Quantinuum, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, after Lam Research’s report set off a tech selloff.
- IonQ had no news of its own, and its drop shows the stock trading like a leveraged bet on the AI trade.
- IonQ’s price depends on revenue that analysts expect years from now, with estimates passing $1 billion by 2028.
- The stock is close to its lowest forward price/sales multiple in five years, and its third-quarter report in early November is the next test.
IonQ (IONQ) fell 3% today, and the rest of quantum computing fell with it. Quantinuum (QNT) dropped 7%, while Rigetti Computing (RGTI) dropped 5% and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) lost 4%, giving back Wednesday’s rally.
It’s another hit for IonQ, which lost 15% in a week after its $2 billion stock sale.
Lam Research lit the fuse
The trigger came after Wednesday’s close, when Lam Research (LRCX) reported. Lam beat estimates and guided above them. But CFO Doug Bettinger warned on Lam’s call that supply constraints could push some December-quarter shipments into March. This morning chip stocks fell across the board, as worries about AI spending came back.
Quantum stocks are the riskiest part of that trade, so they fall the hardest. IonQ fell close to three times as far as the Nasdaq-100 this morning. Quantinuum, Rigetti and D-Wave had no news of their own either, and Rigetti and D-Wave both have betas above 2.
The bet is years out
IonQ’s price depends on growth analysts expect years from now. Consensus has revenue more than tripling, from $130 million in 2025 to $455 million this year, then passing $1 billion by 2028…
Investors sell long-dated bets like that first when they start to doubt how much AI spending is coming.
TIKR tracks 14 analysts on IonQ. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IonQ, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IonQ’s Analyst Ratings
Cheap by its own standards
IonQ has no earnings to price, so it trades on forward sales. It was at 20x at Wednesday’s close, just above Monday’s five-year low of 19x, and today’s drop takes it right back there…
Expect more days like this
Nothing in IonQ’s business changed overnight. Today’s drop is the AI trade’s mood swinging, with IonQ magnifying it, and that same leverage lifted the stock on Wednesday.
My take: the stock is close to its cheapest multiple in five years, and analysts expect revenue to more than triple this year. For long-term holders, that makes the selloff look overdone. Of course, IonQ will keep trading on AI headlines until its third-quarter report in early November shows that growth arriving.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what IonQ could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
