Intuit Stock Is Down 49% From Its Highs Despite Growing Revenue 14%. Is INTU Finally Cheap?

Key Stats for Intuit Stock

• 52-Week Range: $252.84 to $705.08
• Street Mean Target: ~$423
• YTD Return: -43%
• LTM Gross Margin: 81.0%
• LTM EBIT Margin: 28.8%
• NTM P/E: ~15x
• Dividend Yield: 1.5%

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A Business That Keeps Compounding While the Stock Does the Opposite

Intuit (INTU) is one of the most durable financial software platforms ever built. Its three core businesses, TurboTax for consumer tax filing, QuickBooks for small business accounting and payroll, and Credit Karma for personal finance and lending marketplace services, each occupy dominant positions in markets where switching costs are high and the data advantage compounds over time.

Every year, a small business keeps its books in QuickBooks, every tax return is filed through TurboTax, and every credit score is checked on Credit Karma, making Intuit’s platform more useful and its churn lower.

The company has grown revenue at roughly 14% to 17% annually for years, and fiscal 2026 continued that pattern, with revenue of $21.4 billion, up about 14% year over year.

The disconnect between that operational consistency and what the stock has done in 2026 is the central question for any investor looking at INTU today.

The combo chart below shows both the revenue trajectory and the EPS compounding story in a single view, and the consistency is hard to square with a stock that has lost nearly half its value.

Revenue has grown from $9.63 billion in fiscal 2021 to $21.45 billion in fiscal 2026, with EPS climbing from $9.74 to $24.27 over the same period. There are no interruptions, no down years, just steady compounding driven by pricing power, subscriber growth, and operating leverage.

Consensus estimates project revenue reaching $23.4 billion in fiscal 2027 and roughly $31 billion by 2031, with EPS projected above $32. The stock’s 49% decline from its highs has nothing to do with any of those numbers deteriorating.

It reflects a multiple compression from roughly 50 times earnings at the peak to around 15 times today, one of the sharpest valuation resets any high-quality compounder has experienced in recent memory.

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What the Valuation Model Says About the Reset

The multiple compression is exactly what makes the TIKR valuation model’s output interesting at current prices. At $358, Intuit is being priced like a slow-growth utility rather than the platform business it actually is, and the model captures what that gap implies for forward returns.

The mid-case targets around $653 per share by mid-2031, implying a total return of roughly 82% from current levels and an annualized IRR of around 13%.

The model assumes revenue growing at roughly 9% per year and net income margins around 29%, both conservative relative to Intuit’s actual five-year track record of 17% revenue growth and 28% net income margins. The high case pushes toward $1,120 by 2035 at around 14% annualized returns.

What makes the setup credible is that the model does not require multiple expansions to generate those returns. It simply assumes the business keeps doing what it has been doing, and the math works at 15 times earnings in a way it did not at 50 times.

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What the Street Thinks and Why the Gap Is Meaningful

At $358, Intuit trades roughly 18% below the Street mean target of around $423, but that gap understates how dramatically both the stock and analyst targets have moved this year. The targets chart below tells a more striking story.

A year ago, the mean target sat above $824 with the stock near $785. Targets have fallen steadily alongside the stock, from $811 in October 2025 to $594 in April 2026 to $423 today, yet the stock has fallen faster than the targets in every period, which is why the target/close ratio has expanded to 118%.

The analyst mix has shifted meaningfully too: buys have dropped from 25 to 21, holds have risen from 5 to 12, and there are now 2 underperforms or sells. The Street is more cautious than it was, but the high target of $921 reflects that some analysts still see a path back toward peak levels if the AI monetization thesis plays out and Credit Karma stabilizes.

The low of $290 sits below the stock’s 52-week low, a reminder that the selloff could have further to run if FY2027 execution disappoints.

Should You Buy Intuit Stock?

Intuit is a genuinely great business trading at a multiple that is historically low for a company of its quality, and the TIKR model’s mid-case implies around 13% annualized returns without requiring any heroic assumptions about multiple expansion.

The AI integration across TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma represents a genuine platform upgrade cycle that management has been executing steadily.

The primary risks are that the multiple stays compressed longer than expected, that AI-native competitors make inroads into the small business accounting market, or that Credit Karma’s performance continues to disappoint.

None of those would change the long-term thesis, but any of them could extend the near-term pain for shareholders who buy expecting a quick recovery.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!