Key Takeaways
- Intuit reaffirmed fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $23.28 billion to $23.51 billion on September 17, the same 9% to 10% growth range that triggered an August 25 selloff and a string of target cuts.
- Intuit stock now carries 15 buy ratings, 5 outperforms, 12 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell, and the Street’s $406 mean target sits just 34% above the $303 close.
- TIKR’s mid-case model prices Intuit stock at $590, implying 94% upside.
- Analysts have cut that mean target from $456 to $406 since July, an 11% reduction even as the stock itself slipped just 4%.
Intuit Stock Gets No New Answers From a Reaffirmed FY27 Reset
Intuit (INTU) stock closed at $303 on September 18, a price that has barely moved since the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance at a September 17 Investor Day in Mountain View, California, handing investors the same numbers that had knocked the stock down in late August. Management set that guidance on August 25 alongside fourth-quarter results, projecting $23.28 billion to $23.51 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue, or 9% to 10% growth. That range sat below the $23.72 billion analysts had penciled in ahead of the print, and the reaction was immediate. Intuit stock fell 4% that day, and JPMorgan slashed its target from $605 to $331 while cutting the stock to neutral.
CEO Sasan Goodarzi framed the reset as a choice rather than a stumble on the Q4 2026 earnings call: “I’m resetting expectations for the company because this is the perfect time to do it where we can play offense.” CFO Sandeep Aujla pointed to where the deceleration was concentrated, Desktop ecosystem, TurboTax, and Credit Karma, and tied margin expansion to savings from the workforce changes announced the prior quarter.
The full fiscal year told a stronger story than the guidance implied. Net income rose 18% to $4.57 billion on revenue up 14% to $21.45 billion, and diluted EPS climbed 20% to $16.46. Global Business Solutions, the segment built around QuickBooks Online, grew 16% to $12.86 billion. None of that kept the outlook for the year ahead from landing soft, and a $293 million restructuring charge tied to the May reorganization plan underlined that the company was still absorbing its own cost cuts.
Seven weeks later, the Investor Day changed none of it. Intuit reaffirmed the identical first-quarter and full-year guidance it had already given, doubling down on an AI-driven platform pitch rather than revising a single figure upward. A reaffirmation carries no new information on its own, but it does rule out the one outcome the market had been bracing for since August: a second cut. That absence, not any new number, is the update.
Intuit Stock’s Price Targets Keep Falling Faster Than the Shares
Intuit stock carries 15 buy ratings, 5 outperforms, 12 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell as of September 18. Separately, 31 analysts publish a price target, and their mean sits at $406, 34% above the $303 close.
That gap has been closing for over a year, but not because the stock caught up to the target. In July 2025, the mean target stood at $824 against a $785 close, just 5% above it. By September 2026, the mean had fallen to $406, a 51% cut, while the stock itself fell 61% to $303 over the same stretch, a steeper drop than the target absorbed.
The sharpest move came recently. The mean target dropped from $456 on July 31 to $406 on September 18, an 11% cut in seven weeks, even as the stock slipped just 4% over that stretch. Analysts kept trimming after a reaffirmation that added no new negative information, which suggests the August reset is still being priced in rather than fully absorbed. Buy ratings fell from 23 in April to 15 now, holds nearly doubled from 5 to 12, and a sell rating that first appeared in July has persisted since.
TIKR Values Intuit Stock at $590, Betting the Reset Was Overdone
TIKR’s mid-case model values Intuit at $590 by July 2031, implying 94% total return from the current price of $303, or 15% annualized over 4.9 years.
That annualized rate outpaces what a mature, already-profitable software company typically needs to deliver for a stock to work, positioning Intuit stock as a re-rating case rather than a steady compounder from here.
The model’s optimism rests on the same math the Street keeps discounting: revenue still growing 9% to 10% in fiscal 2027 even after the reset, net income that grew 18% in fiscal 2026, and a management team explicitly trading near-term growth for market share instead of losing customers. That acquisition push converting into durable revenue is what closes the gap between the Street’s $406 target and the model’s $590 figure, from the top rather than the bottom.
Should You Invest in Intuit Inc.?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
