Key Takeaways
- Intesa Sanpaolo added €800 million in cash, or €0.25 per share, to its Monte dei Paschi offer, valuing the bid at roughly €35 billion.
- Delfin, MPS’s largest investor with 17.6%, will tender its stake and vote against the MPS defense plan on October 29.
- Intesa pays mostly in its own shares, which trade at 1.68x book value on a 16.27% return on equity in Q2 2026.
Intesa raised its bid while paying mostly in its own stock. Track ISP’s valuation and returns as the MPS vote nears on TIKR for free →
Intesa Sanpaolo Raised a Bid It Said It Would Not Raise
On the H1 2026 earnings call last July 29, Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) CEO Carlo Messina said there was “0 possibility that we will increase our price” for Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS). Ten weeks later, Intesa did.
It added €0.25 per MPS share in cash, or €800 million, on top of 1.6 new Intesa shares per MPS share. That raises the cash payment per MPS share by 25%, from €1 to €1.25, while increasing the overall offer’s value by about 2.3%, using Friday’s Intesa closing price to value the share component.
The extra cash comes with a condition. MPS shareholders must reject CEO Luigi Lovaglio’s defense plan on October 29, and Intesa said it will drop the bid entirely if that plan passes.
Lovaglio’s plan needs two-thirds approval. Delfin, the Del Vecchio family holding company that owns 17.6% of MPS, has now committed to vote against it.
Intesa shares closed up 1.55% at €6.43 on October 5.
Why ISP Stock’s Valuation Does the Heavy Lifting
Because most of the offer is paid in Intesa stock, Intesa’s own valuation sets much of the price. The shares trade at 1.68x LTM book value, above their 1.55x one-year average and well above the 1.30x low in late March.
That premium rests on returns. Intesa’s return on equity rose from 13.38% in 2024 to 14.29% in 2025, then reached 16.27% in Q2 2026 after dipping to 10.45% in Q4 2025.
A well-valued share price means the 1.6-share exchange ratio carries more weight for MPS holders without Intesa adding much cash. Messina expects €2.9 billion of synergies and more than €16 billion of net income in 2029 from the combined group.
The harder test is competition. The merged bank would hold an estimated 24% to 25% of Italian loans and deposits, Intesa has agreed to sell 635 MPS branches, and Italy’s antitrust authority is expected to rule in mid-to-late November.
The October 29 vote decides whether the deal moves forward, and the antitrust ruling decides what it costs. If regulators demand more than the 635 branches already offered, Intesa would be paying the same price for a smaller slice of the market.
The antitrust ruling will set how much of MPS Intesa actually keeps. Follow ISP’s estimates and returns through the regulatory decision on TIKR for free →
So what is Intesa Sanpaolo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
