Key Takeaways
- Harley-Davidson shares jumped as much as 10% after Citi upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $33 from $31.
- Citi’s case rests on retail sales that grew in the first half of 2026, which its analysts’ checks say could be up double digits in September.
- Most of Wall Street isn’t convinced: 11 of the 17 analysts covering the stock rate it Hold or Underperform, and consensus sees earnings per share falling to $0.68 this year.
- Third-quarter results, expected around Oct. 28, will show whether the stronger retail sales are reaching the numbers.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares soared 10% in early Monday morning trading after Citi upgraded the motorcycle maker to Buy from Neutral before the open and raised its price target to $33 from $31.
That target sits about 34% above Friday’s close. Behind it is a bold claim from Citi analyst James Hardiman, in a note quoted by CNBC: “Looking forward, the demand strength in 2026 could transition into a multi-year retail growth story.”
That’s quite a call for a stock that fell in each of the last three years.
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What Citi sees
Hardiman’s case starts with retail: “Following positive domestic retail growth in both 1H26 and continued strength through July and August, our latest checks suggest September retail could be up double digits.” (1H26 means the first half of 2026.)
That lines up with Harley’s July results. North American retail sales rose 3% in the second quarter, and management raised its full-year outlook for both retail sales and operating income.
Wall Street’s revenue estimates have already turned. After sales slid from $4.84 billion in fiscal 2023 to $3.58 billion in fiscal 2025, analysts expect growth of about 6% this year and 4% in 2027…
Hardiman raised his own estimates for both remaining quarters of this year and for 2027 and 2028, so if his September checks hold up, the consensus has room to move higher.
Why most of Wall Street is waiting
Citi is taking a different view from most of Wall Street. Of the 17 analysts covering Harley, 11 rate the stock Hold or Underperform, according to LSEG.
The earnings outlook helps explain the caution. Consensus calls for normalized EPS to fall from $2.78 in 2025 to just $0.68 this year, with earnings still below 2025’s level in 2028.
Part of that drop comes from Harley’s financial services arm, which is moving to a model that ties up less capital. Harley said that shift was the main reason second-quarter net income fell 26%.
I still think Citi has the better side of this one. Retail turnarounds show up first in the motorcycle business, and its revenue rose 6% last quarter. Dealer inventory also ended the quarter 17% below a year earlier. Dealers with lighter stock and more customers walking in need more bikes from Harley.
What’s next
Harley is expected to report third-quarter results around Oct. 28, according to FactSet. Analysts polled by LSEG expect earnings to drop more than 80% from a year earlier, so the bar is low.
Citi’s “multi-year retail growth story” looks believable to me, even if the earnings take longer to catch up. Of course, the September number comes from Hardiman’s own checks, so the real test is whether Harley confirms it later this month.
So what is Harley-Davidson stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
