Key Stats for AST SpaceMobile Stock
- Current Price: $58.45
- Target Price (Mid): ~$184
- Street Target (12-month mean): ~$78
- Potential Total Return: ~215%
- Annualized IRR: ~31% / year
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What Happened?
B. Riley’s case against AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) turns on pricing power. On October 2, the firm downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to $65 from $85. It cited delayed launches, rising constellation costs, and competition from rivals such as the Equatys joint venture between Viasat and Space42. Analyst Mike Crawford said shares fairly reflect what is known until subscriber uptake and plan pricing data arrive. His $65 target sits below the Street mean of around $78. Shares closed up 2.47% at $58.45 that day, still below the September 30 close of $58.86.
So far, none of AST’s revenue depends on phone plans. Its Q2 2026 revenue of $31.52 million was driven by gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestones, and commercial service had not launched. AST’s investor relations materials and August 10 earnings call show how long that mix could last.
Government Could Drive Up to Half of AST’s First Commercial Year
President Scott Wisniewski reiterated the goal of approaching $1 billion in revenue in the first year of commercial service, which he expects to begin in 2027. For that year, he cited a “really strong opportunity in government that could contribute to probably as much as half of that,” alongside continued infrastructure revenue. Most U.S. government revenue to date comes from non-communications work, such as radar. AST also announced three awards with a funded near-term value of over $100 million across 2026 and 2027.
These are management goals backed by early-stage contracts. Government is still a minority of the roughly $1.30 billion backlog, and Wisniewski called the current awards initial phases that the government wants AST to perform on before scaling up.
In Japan, a Rakuten and AST joint venture won preliminary selection for the J-LEO project, with a total expected value of up to about $1 billion. The selection is still pending government approvals and final agreements. CEO Abel Avellan said the funding represents “roughly half on the investment on those satellites in capital that is non-dilutive and non-debt,” referring to the Japan-flagged satellites.
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B. Riley’s Cost and Competition Worries Meet a 53x Revenue Multiple
On the August 10 call, CFO Andy Johnson said, “We’ve been consistent now for several quarters that we are falling between $21 million and $23 million per satellite.” That range includes launch and excludes some early validation satellites, and he noted geopolitical factors could move it. Launch timing is the harder variable: BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 have shipped to Cape Canaveral for an upcoming launch, joining 13 satellites in orbit at the Q2 report.
TIKR’s fiscal 2027 revenue consensus is down about 15% since June 30, while coverage grew from 9 to 11 analysts. AST trades at around 53x NTM EV/revenue. That compares with around 25x for SpaceX (SPCX), 34x for Globalstar (GSAT), and 7x for Iridium (IRDM). All three peers carry positive forward P/E ratios, and AST does not, so its premium needs both the government ramp and paying subscribers.
A pending securities class action covering purchases from March 4, 2025, to July 15, 2026, alleges the company overstated its competitive position. The allegations are unproven, and the lead plaintiff deadline is November 13, 2026.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $58.45
- Target Price (Mid): ~$184
- Potential Total Return: ~215%
- Annualized IRR: ~31% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for AST SpaceMobile stock (It’s free!) >>>
The mid case, the model’s central scenario, projects around $184 by December 31, 2030 from the $58.45 entry, or roughly 31% a year. Reaching it requires revenue to scale from both government programs and commercial service. Street estimates show EBITDA turning positive at around $110 million in 2027, while EBIT and net income stay negative that year.
The primary risk is B. Riley’s: weaker plan pricing would pressure revenue estimates. A large government program would be the upside surprise, and further launch delays the main downside.
Conclusion
The Q3 report, expected in November but not yet confirmed by the company, is the next checkpoint. Consensus calls for around $47 million in revenue. A print near that, with new government award values disclosed, supports the government-led path. A miss with no new contracts leaves B. Riley’s stance intact until commercial service, which management expects in 2027, produces pricing data.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
